【Iran Crisis】Prediction market Polymarket makes accurate bets again; six mysterious accounts profit $1.2 million, involved in insider trading?

The news of the United States launching a military strike on Iran shocked the world, and market observers predicted that some individuals quietly made precise strategic moves, once again raising concerns about insider trading. According to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, six suspected related accounts placed concentrated bets on “Yes” just hours before the U.S. airstrike on Iran, collectively earning approximately $1.2 million in profit. Market analyst Mike Levin called for “answers, transparency, and oversight.”

“US Attack” Precise Bets

Based on Bubblemaps’ analysis posted on social platform X, these six Polymarket accounts heavily bought “Yes” shares in the contract market “Will the US strike Iran before February 28, 2026?” prior to the news being announced, and subsequently cashed out at $1 settlement, making all profits.

One account bought over 560,000 shares of “Yes” at an average price of about 10.8 cents, ultimately earning nearly $560,000. Another account purchased nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents each, also recording six-figure returns. Bubblemaps’ visual map shows that the fund flow paths among these six wallets are highly similar, indicating clear connections.

Bubblemaps pointed out that all accounts were registered in February, with most wallets completing their first deposit within 24 hours before the attack occurred, and aside from this bet, there are no other transaction records in their history. This pattern closely resembles typical insider trading behavior.

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Mystery Account “Magamyman” Bets on Iran 71 Minutes Before News, Sparks Suspicion

Additionally, market observer Mike Levin further disclosed on social platform X that among these six accounts, a Polymarket account named “Magamyman” made a profit of $515,000 in a single day, with its first trade completed just 71 minutes before the related news was publicly disclosed.

Levin also pointed out that Donald Trump Jr., son of U.S. President Donald Trump, is a member of the Polymarket advisory board, and his affiliated company invested tens of millions of dollars into the platform last year. Levin emphasized that prediction markets should never be used as tools to profit from advance knowledge of military actions. He called for “answers, transparency, and oversight.”

Traders Bet on Maduro’s Arrest, Profit $436,000, Platform Refuses Payout

Coincidentally, before U.S. President Trump’s arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, traders also bet on Polymarket that the U.S. would invade Venezuela. After the news of Maduro’s arrest was announced, traders earned $436,000 in profit. However, Polymarket later announced it would refuse to pay out the related winnings.

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