In a market where the main trend is upward but sentiment is mainly downward, how should one choose?

Deep Review Beforehand, Routine Summary of Today’s Observations:

Revisit the 5-line support, focus on Hanlan Co. and GCL System Integration;
Unfollow Jinyangda;

Deep Dive: Market Sentiment Review
$1
March 2, 2026 (Monday)

1. Key Data and Sentiment Diagnosis
1.1 Overall Market Performance
Index and Volume: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47% to close at 4182.59 points, with a total turnover of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 532.7 billion yuan from yesterday, showing increased volume with sluggish gains.
Number of Advancing and Declining Stocks & Limit-up/Limit-down Sentiment: 1,103 stocks up, 4,026 down, indicating a broad decline. 87 stocks hit the limit-up, 8 hit the limit-down. The few limit-down stocks suggest panic hasn’t been widespread, but the median decline among individual stocks is large, highlighting a serious “index gains but no profit” phenomenon.

1.2 Short-term Sentiment Indicators

Low success rate of consecutive limit-ups, reflecting cautious market rally sentiment.
Limit-up break rate: 20.91%. Yesterday’s limit-up stocks averaged a 2.62% increase today, indicating some premium but severe differentiation, with funds preferring to cluster around core high-flyers.

2. In-depth Analysis of the Consecutive Limit-up Tiers
2.1 Market limit-up tiers compressed to 3 boards, with clear gaps in tiers. Taijia Co., FiberHome Technologies, and Changyuan Donggu rely on core logic (computing power/military/alternators) to achieve 3 consecutive limit-ups, becoming the market’s top targets. The rest are mostly 2-board stocks, mainly follow-up gains in oil & gas, metals, and other sectors, lacking independent logic, and are “spectator-type” limit-ups.

2.2 Focus on the potential breakthrough from 3 to 4 limit-ups. If the three stocks with 3 limit-ups today can advance to 4, it will break recent high-pressure levels and boost market sentiment; if all break their limit-ups, the market will enter a phase of shrinking speculation.

3. Hot Sector and Core Stock Comments
3.1 Oil & Gas Exploration and Services
Number of limit-ups driven by policy or industry factors: 33 stocks hit the limit-up, driven by Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, representing the strongest sector.
Core stocks and strategy: COSCO Shipping (4 limit-ups in 7 days), Intercontinental Oil & Gas (3 limit-ups in 5 days) are sector leaders. The leaders are entering an acceleration phase; avoid chasing at high levels, focus on low-position first-limit-up or undervalued opportunities.

3.2 Precious Metals and Nonferrous Metals
Number of limit-ups driven by risk aversion and resource price expectations: 14 stocks.
Core stocks and strategy: Huaxi Nonferrous (3 limit-ups in 4 days), Hunan Gold (2 limit-ups) show strong performance. As a risk-averse extension, this sector can be considered for medium-term allocation, focusing on low-entry points after pullbacks.

3.3 Computing Power and Communications
Number of limit-ups driven by earnings surprises and technological iteration: 3 stocks in computing power, 6 in communications.
Core stocks and strategy: Taijia Co. (6 days with 4 and 3 limit-ups), FiberHome Communications (3 limit-ups) are key. This sector has earnings support and is more resilient than pure thematic sectors like oil & gas; pay attention to mid-tier leaders like Zhongji Xuchuang.

4. Overall Market Sentiment Analysis
4.1 Market Sentiment Cycle Positioning
Currently, the market is in a divergence cycle of “index main rise, sentiment main fall.” Opportunities lie in the sustained risk-off sectors like oil & gas and military industry driven by geopolitical tensions; risks include capital fleeing high-tech and AI sectors, and the limited follow-through from high-tier limit-up stocks.

4.2 Capital Behavior and Sentiment Indicator Interpretation
Capital shows clear “risk-avoidance switching” and “big-cap clustering” traits. Main funds are flowing into defensive tech sectors, while high-growth stocks are being sold off. The sentiment indicator shows many limit-ups are concentrated in specific sectors, with low overall market tolerance, indicating a “high difficulty” trading environment.

5. Future Outlook and Trading Strategies
5.1 Major Directional Judgment
In the short term, Middle East tensions remain the core market variable, with funds focusing on risk-off and cyclical themes. As the Two Sessions approach, policy expectations (new productive forces) may rotate.

5.2 Avoidance and Focus Areas
Avoid: High-level AI applications (gaming, media), small-cap stocks driven by pure themes.
Focus: Leading stocks in oil & gas and shipping sectors, computing hardware with earnings support, and low-entry opportunities in gold and military sectors. Maintain cautious positions, avoid chasing highs, and focus on front-line core stocks.

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【Important Notice】: The above is for idea sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously!