TC Energy Delivers Record 2025 Performance with 15 Flow Records and Strong Financial Growth

TC Energy Corporation achieved its strongest operational performance in five years during 2025, setting 15 flow records across its North American pipeline and power systems while demonstrating the resilience of its utility-like business model amid geopolitical and market volatility. The company released its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results, revealing comparable EBITDA growth of approximately 13 percent in Q4 and nine percent for the full year, supported by exceptional operational excellence and a disciplined capital allocation strategy.

Safety Excellence Drives Exceptional Operational Performance

The foundation of TC Energy’s 2025 success rests on its commitment to safety-first culture, which delivered the strongest safety performance in five years. This operational focus enabled the company to achieve unprecedented flow records across its systems, including all-time delivery records of 39.9 Bcf on the U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines and 33.2 Bcf on the Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines, both set in early 2026 as market demand continued accelerating.

The Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines averaged 27.2 Bcf/d in Q4 2025—a five percent increase compared to the same period in 2024—while the NGTL System receipts averaged 15.5 Bcf/d, up two percent year-over-year. Deliveries to LNG facilities surged 21 percent quarter-over-quarter to average 3.9 Bcf/d, reflecting robust export demand. U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines experienced even stronger momentum, with daily average flows reaching 29.6 Bcf/d, up 9.5 percent in Q4, as record power generation demand from data centre infrastructure and coal-to-gas conversions drove incremental capacity utilization across the continent.

Strong Financial Performance Supports Long-Term Value Creation

TC Energy’s financial results reflected solid execution across its regulated and contracted asset portfolio. Comparable EBITDA reached $3.0 billion in Q4 2025, compared to $2.6 billion in the prior year quarter, while full-year 2025 comparable EBITDA totaled $11.0 billion versus $10.0 billion in 2024. Segmented earnings increased approximately 15 percent in Q4 to $2.2 billion from $1.9 billion, while full-year segmented earnings remained steady at $8.0 billion, demonstrating consistent value generation across the company’s diversified asset base.

Fourth quarter comparable earnings per common share reached $0.98, compared to $1.05 in Q4 2024, while full-year comparable earnings per share totaled $3.51, down from $3.73 in 2024. The moderation reflects typical seasonal variations and project staging rather than operational weakness. With 98 percent of comparable EBITDA underpinned by rate-regulated or long-term take-or-pay contracts, TC Energy maintains limited commodity exposure and strong visibility to stable, multi-decade cash flows—a structural advantage that has proven resilient during periods of market uncertainty.

Strategic Capital Deployment Targets High-Return Growth Opportunities

TC Energy sanctioned $0.6 billion of low-risk, in-corridor expansion projects during 2025, demonstrating disciplined capital allocation while maintaining flexibility to capture emerging opportunities. The company successfully placed $8.3 billion of projects into service during the year—over 15 percent under budget—including the critical VR project on its Columbia system (approximately US$0.5 billion) and the WR project on its ANR system in Wisconsin (approximately US$0.7 billion), both completed in November 2025.

Looking ahead, TC Energy expects to place approximately $4 billion of capital into service in 2026, including the Bison XPress Project on the Northern Border Pipeline, the Valhalla North and Berland River Project on the NGTL System, and the Bruce Power Unit 3 as part of the Maintenance and Compliance Replacement program. The company targets a build multiple range of five to seven times, meaning each dollar of capital expenditure is expected to generate five to seven dollars of comparable EBITDA over the life of the assets—a disciplined approach that prioritizes shareholder returns.

For the period 2025 through 2030, TC Energy expects to fully deploy $6 billion of net annual capital expenditures and has “greater visibility to potentially surpass this level of investment in the latter part of the decade,” indicating management confidence in the strength and durability of its growth opportunities.

Data Centre Boom and LNG Exports Drive Pipeline Expansion Opportunities

Market fundamentals continue improving substantially across TC Energy’s operating regions. In January 2026, the company successfully completed a non-binding expansion project open season on its Columbia Gas Transmission system for up to 0.5 Bcf/d of incremental capacity serving the Columbus area and New Albany. Robust customer demand driven by exponential data centre load growth resulted in approximately 1.5 Bcf/d of total bids—three times the proposed project capacity—highlighting the strength of regional power demand.

Building on this momentum, TC Energy launched a non-binding open season in February 2026 for up to 1.5 Bcf/d of capacity on its Crossroads Pipeline system, targeting rapidly growing markets in Northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and South Dakota. These regions are experiencing significant announced power generation and data centre development, positioning TC Energy’s infrastructure to capture incremental midstream revenue as North American energy demand shifts.

The company projects North American natural gas demand will increase approximately 45 Bcf/d to reach approximately 170 Bcf/d between 2025 and 2035, driven by three primary factors: LNG export expansion, rising power generation from data centre electrification, and increasing reliability requirements from local distribution companies. This secular demand growth provides a multi-decade tailwind for TC Energy’s portfolio and justifies the company’s confidence in announcing additional projects throughout 2026.

Dividend Growth and Financial Stability Underpin Long-Term Returns

Reflecting its solid operating and financial performance, TC Energy’s Board of Directors approved a 3.2 percent increase in the quarterly common share dividend to $0.8775 per common share for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, equivalent to $3.51 on an annualized basis. This marks the 26th consecutive year of dividend increases, underscoring management’s conviction in the durability and predictability of the company’s cash flows and its ability to grow distributions while funding growth capital expenditures.

The company remains on track to deliver its long-term debt-to-EBITDA target, with adjusted debt of $55.4 billion and adjusted comparable EBITDA of $11.5 billion resulting in a ratio of 4.8x as of year-end 2025. This financial flexibility enables TC Energy to execute its capital program, fund dividends, and maintain investment-grade credit ratings—critical advantages in an environment where access to capital markets and financial agility determine competitive positioning.

Strategic Positioning for the Energy Transition

TC Energy’s differentiated exposure to the fastest-growing segments of the North American energy market—natural gas and power generation—positions the company to capture durable value creation over the next decade. The company moves over 30 percent of the cleaner-burning natural gas consumed across North America, providing essential infrastructure for the energy transition while supporting affordable, reliable power across the continent and LNG exports to global markets.

Management remains focused on three core strategic priorities: (1) delivering solid growth and repeatable performance by maximizing asset value through safety and operational excellence, (2) executing its selective portfolio of growth projects with disciplined capital allocation, and (3) ensuring financial strength and agility to adapt to evolving market conditions. As TC Energy enters 2026, these priorities remain unchanged, supported by a differentiated portfolio extending through the end of the decade and beyond.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
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