Hold the mid-term short position in Bitcoin, HYPE successfully rides the waves for profit | Special Analysis

Hello everyone, I am Cody, an invited analyst from Odaily Planet Daily. Wishing all my readers a happy Lantern Festival in advance!

Looking back at last week’s Bitcoin market, the overall trend mostly followed the previously established trading framework and rhythm. In the short-term strategy, market movements and short-term judgments aligned closely, leading to a short position (1x leverage) trade with a profit of approximately 2.12% (see Table 2). For mid-term strategy, Bitcoin continued to follow the previously set medium-term approach, maintaining a short position at $89,000 (1x leverage). As of last week’s close, the price retreated to about $65,770, with an unrealized profit of approximately 26.10%, and a maximum floating profit of about 32.58% during this period.

From a market analysis perspective, Bitcoin last week remained in a weak oscillation range, consistent with our previous assessment of the C-2 wave rebound phase, indicating that the short-term rebound nature has not changed.

Additionally, I remain optimistic about HYPE’s prospects, so this weekly report continues to track and analyze HYPE’s multi-cycle trend structure. Last week, based on my own short-term analysis, I executed a long position (1x leverage), with a profit of about 11.14%, which aligns well with the trading logic and execution results (see Table 1).

Below, I will provide a more detailed explanation of the market forecast, strategy logic, trade execution, and review of results.

1. HYPE Trend — Prelude to Wave III?

In my weekly review on February 22, I first highlighted the investment opportunity in HYPE, clearly indicating that its previous downtrend might reverse. The current market is in the correction phase of Wave II after Wave I’s rally, with a potential for a main upward move (Wave III) in the near future. The core basis for this judgment includes: (see Figure 2)

• During Wave I’s rally, the price successfully broke through the long-term downtrend line connecting the September 2025 high (~$59.48) and October 2025 high (~$50.17);

• At the start of Wave I, our self-developed momentum quantification model issued a daily divergence signal;

• At the start of Wave I, our price spread quantification model triggered a strong bottom warning signal (white bar in the chart).

It’s worth noting that the validity of these two models’ signals has been confirmed by the market’s strong upward movement during Wave I.

1. HYPE Short-term Trading Review (1x leverage): (02.22–03.01)

Last week, we strictly followed the signals from our proprietary spread trading and momentum quantification models, combined with our forecast of Wave III’s main upward trend, completing one short-term (long) trade, with a profit of approximately 11.14%.

(See Table 1)

• Summary of HYPE short-term trades: (Leverage *1)

Table 1

• Entry decision (see Figure 3): Based on the forecast of the main upward trend; simultaneously, the spread quantification model issued multiple bottom warning signals (red dots in the chart), which, together with the momentum model, formed a bottom resonance signal; and the price broke through key previous resistance levels and stabilized. Therefore, the position was opened at $27.28 (long).

• Exit decision: The spread and momentum models issued a top resonance signal, so the position was closed near $30.32.

• Trade summary: This operation successfully captured the early-stage upward opportunity of Wave III, earning about 11.14%.

HYPE 30-minute K-line chart

Figure 1 (Short-term trading illustration)

2. Initial structure analysis of the daily chart (based on market evolution after January 21):

HYPE Daily K-line chart

Figure 2

• Wave I (Driving Wave): Started at the low of $20.46 on January 21 and ended at the high of $38.41 on February 3. Lasted 14 days, with a maximum increase of 87.73%, forming the first major driving wave of this upward cycle.

• Wave II (Correction Wave): Started at the high of $38.41 on February 3 and ended at the low of $25.60 on February 24. Lasted 20 days, correcting Wave I with a maximum retracement of 33.35%.

• Wave III (Potential Driving Wave): Initiated from the low of $25.60 on February 24. The current market is ongoing, and Wave III is often the most explosive of the three.

• Confirmation of Wave III’s initiation: The current trend shows several technical features consistent with the early stage of a strong driving wave:

a. Breakthrough of key resistance: Price successfully broke through an important resistance line (yellow line) since Wave II’s correction, which had been challenged three times previously without success. This indicates a shift in the strength balance between bulls and bears.

b. Strong momentum validation: The rebound from the February 24 low, in just 6 days, fully covered the previous 10 days of decline. Notably, the large bullish candle on February 28, with a 14.25% increase, demonstrates significant momentum characteristic of Wave III’s early phase.

c. Structural trend reversal: The current high surpasses two key structural points near the Wave II correction: the high of February 21 at $30.59 and the low of February 19 at $27.73. This suggests a “higher high” trend, indicating that the previous downtrend has been fundamentally reversed.

• Confirmation of Wave III’s high point: The high of Wave III must exceed the Wave I peak of $38.41. Otherwise, the current move may still be a rebound within a broad oscillation or a correction in a downtrend.

3. HYPE 4-hour detailed wave structure:

HYPE 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 3

In Figure 3, we further subdivide the daily wave structure:

• Wave I internal structure: subdivided into five upward segments: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, forming a complete upward trend.

• Wave II internal structure: subdivided into seven correction segments: 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, 8-9, 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, forming orderly retracements.

• Wave III internal structure: in progress, currently subdivided into three segments: 12-13, 13-14, 14-15, with the upward segment 14-15 still ongoing.

二、回顾比特币——区间震荡为主：（02.22–03.01）

1. 短线操作策略回顾：（见表二）

我们严格依据自主构建的价差交易模型与动能量化模型发出的交易信号，结合市场走势预判，上周完成一次空单操作，盈利2.12%。

① 比特币短线交易明细： (杠杆*1)

表二

② 短线交易复盘：（见图四）

• 开仓：反弹遇阻下降趋势线，价差模型触发顶部预警（绿点），再叠加两个模型的沽空共振信号，于68,876美元建立15%的空头仓位。

• 风控：空单初始止损设在72,000美元。

• 平仓：价格跌至支撑位附近，结合模型底部信号及K线组合见底，全部清仓于67,415美元。

• 小结：本次交易盈利2.12%。

比特币30分钟K线图：（动能+价差模型）

图四（短线交易示意图）

三、比特币指标分析：周线与日线综合研判

周线层面：中期空头结构仍在延续

从周线结构看，动能量化模型中的动能线持续向下，负向动能柱虽有阶段性缩短，但尚未出现明显背离信号，空头趋势未有实质性逆转。情绪量化模型显示，市场尚未进入明显超卖恐慌区，底部情绪修复条件不足；数字监测模型也未发出底部确认信号。

盘面结构上，上周周K线收出一根约2.76%的阴线，价格跌破原有三角形收敛结构，重心明显下移，整体形态更偏向下跌中继，显示中期走势仍偏弱。

日线层面：超跌反弹持续，但动能有限

从日线角度观察，短周期内行情整体维持横盘震荡。动能线在零轴下方形成“金叉”后略有上行，显示短线反弹动能在释放，但正向动能柱排列无序、持续性不足，反弹节奏偏弱。

情绪量化模型方面，情绪指标虽在缓慢脱离超卖区间，但资金参与度仍有限，多空双方以观望为主，难以推动行情形成趋势。

多周期综合判断

结合周线和日线分析，目前比特币仍处于空头主导的下行结构中。日线的反弹更偏向于技术性修复，未扭转周线趋势前，反弹高度和持续性仍需谨慎对待。

以上数据提示：日线空头趋势未变，超跌反弹仍在延续。

四、行情预测：（03.02–03.08）

1. 比特币上涨中枢构筑（基于2月6日低点后行情）

比特币4小时K线图

图五

以4小时为操作周期：

• 中枢构筑：从4小时图看，仍有较大概率在构筑“上涨中枢”结构的可能，阻力位约在72,300美元附近，支撑位下移到62,500美元左右。

• 核心操作预案：

• 向上反弹：若币价有效突破72,300美元阻力，脱离“中枢引力”，可能延续C-2段超跌反弹走势，但空间有限。

• 向下调整：目前中枢的最低支撑位下移至62,500美元，接近2月6日低点60,000美元。若跌破此支撑，则C-2段超跌反弹可能结束，或将开启C-3段调整行情。

• 不论行情走向如何，建议短线操作坚持“逢高做空”。

2. 本周核心观点：维持区间震荡，关注多空争夺边缘。

策略上应坚持“逢高减仓（多单），控制风险”。

3. 关键压力位：

• 第一压力区：68,500–70,000美元（前期密集成交区）

• 第二压力区：72,300–74,500美元（去年4月低点附近）

4. 关键支撑位：

• 第一支撑：65,000美元左右

• 第二支撑：60,000–62,500美元区域

• 第三支撑：57,400美元（210周均线附近）

五、A、B方案策略（排除突发消息影响）：（03.02–03.08）

1. 中线策略：保持60%空单。若反弹有效突破74,500美元，可减仓至40%。

2. 短线策略：用30%仓位，设止损，结合支撑压力位寻找“价差”机会（以30分钟/60分钟周期操作）。

3. 由于中期趋势偏空，短线操作应遵循“顺势而为，逢高做空”。为应对市场复杂变化，结合自建模型信号，制定A/B两套短线方案：

• 方案A：反弹至70,000–72,300美元压力区：

• 开仓：触发阻力遇阻信号，结合模型顶部信号，建立15%空头仓位。

• 风控：止损设在75,500美元上方。

• 平仓：跌至支撑附近，结合模型信号逐步获利平仓。

• 方案B：反弹至74,500美元：

• 加仓：继续反弹遇阻，结合模型顶部信号，增仓15%空头。

• 风控：止损75,500美元。

• 平仓：跌至支撑位，结合模型信号逐步获利平仓。

六、特别提示：

1. 开仓时：立即设置初始止损。

2. 盈利1%时：将止损移至开仓成本，确保本金安全。

3. 盈利2%时：将止损移至盈利1%的位置。

4. 持续跟踪：每盈利1%，止损同步上移1%，动态保护。

市场瞬息万变，所有分析和策略需动态调整。本文观点、模型和操作仅为个人技术分析记录，不构成投资建议。投资有风险，谨慎操作。