Freight Rates Per Mile Surge as U.S. Trucking Market Defies January Seasonality

The U.S. trucking sector has defied historical patterns this year, remaining robust through the early months despite the typical post-holiday inventory wind-down. Unlike previous years when transportation demand plummets after the December rush, shippers and carriers have found themselves operating in a remarkably active market. This sustained strength is reshaping both capacity availability and per-mile pricing across the industry, creating a seller’s market that favors experienced operators.

Supply Crunch Keeps Carriers in the Driver’s Seat

The tight capacity environment is unmistakable when examining rejection metrics. Nearly 10% of offered truckload shipments—a rejection rate of 9.97% according to the STRI.USA index—are being declined by carriers. This figure surpasses any recorded rate throughout 2023, 2024, and into 2025, matching only the elevated levels seen in 2022 when the industry was adjusting from post-pandemic disruptions.

Why are carriers turning down so much freight? The answer lies in their leverage: many are finding more lucrative opportunities on the spot market rather than accepting predetermined rates. This dynamic is forcing shippers to scramble, adjusting routing plans and accepting higher costs as carriers hold firm on pricing power.

Freight Rates Per Mile Remain Stubbornly Elevated

Current spot market conditions reflect the supply-demand imbalance clearly. Freight rates per mile, inclusive of fuel surcharges, are averaging $2.62. While this represents a modest pullback from the December 30 peak of $2.76, the current pricing remains well above seasonal norms. The stickiness of per-mile rates at these levels signals that capacity constraints are not temporary—they reflect fundamental market tightness.

For context, rates at these levels would typically emerge only during peak demand periods. The fact that they’re holding steady through the traditionally slower early-year period underscores just how constrained capacity truly is.

Geographic Disparities in Capacity Availability

The capacity squeeze is not uniformly distributed across North America. Among the major trucking corridors, Chicago and Harrisburg are experiencing the most acute shortages, with tender rejection rates of 9.51% and 9.45%, respectively. Carriers in these hubs are particularly selective about which loads they accept.

Los Angeles presents a contrasting picture, with the lowest rejection rate among top five markets at just 4.33%. The divergence reflects broader supply chain shifts: import volumes remain subdued, and much of the incoming freight is routing through railroads instead. Rail carriers reported a 2% increase in intermodal volume last year, followed by an 8% year-over-year jump in 2024, even as traditional truckload volumes declined.

The 2026 Outlook: Shifting Variables

Several factors could reshape freight demand and per-mile rates moving forward. Recent inventory data revealed that merchandise stockpiles contracted more sharply than anticipated as the year wound down, prompting the National Retail Federation to revise import forecasts upward. Concurrently, consumer spending patterns—which drove 4.3% GDP growth in Q3 2025—continue to signal strong demand.

If inventory drawdowns persist while consumer demand accelerates, shippers may increasingly turn to trucking services as their preferred mode, bypassing the intermodal rail option in favor of speed and real-time visibility. Such a shift would likely sustain current freight rates per mile at elevated levels or potentially push them higher as demand intensifies.

That said, these trends operate within a context of uncertainty. International trade policy remains unsettled, with potential Supreme Court rulings on tariff structures looming on the horizon. Any significant shift in tariff regimes could fundamentally alter import strategies and give shippers greater confidence in longer-term planning, introducing a wild card into current projections.

Market Positioning Today

For now, the trucking industry operates within a constrained environment where capacity limitations continue to underpin both carrier profitability and per-mile pricing strength. The market remains a seller’s domain, with strong freight rates per mile reflecting genuine supply-demand dynamics rather than temporary fluctuations.