#贵金原油价格飙升 The Battlefield Between Traditional Safe-Haven Assets and Digital Assets

Between 2025 and 2026, global geopolitical conflicts have become frequent, with gold surpassing $5300 per ounce and crude oil temporarily hitting $100 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, the virtual currency market has shown a sharp divergence: Bitcoin plummeted to $63,000 in the early stages of the crisis, then rebounded by over 2%; mainstream coins like Ethereum and SOL experienced declines exceeding 10%. This phenomenon profoundly reveals the complex role of virtual currencies amid soaring commodity prices — they are neither purely "digital gold" nor simple risk assets, but a new asset class torn between liquidity, inflation expectations, and safe-haven sentiments.
I. Transmission Mechanisms of Precious Metals and Oil Price Surges
1.1 Dual Impact of Inflation Expectations
The rise in oil and gold prices impacts the virtual currency market through two pathways:
Cost-Push Inflation Pressure: The surge in oil prices directly raises global production costs. JPMorgan forecasts that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could rise to $120–130 per barrel, and U.S. inflation could reach 5%. While high inflation environments theoretically favor "inflation-hedging" assets like Bitcoin, in reality, they trigger expectations of tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, leading to risk asset sell-offs.
Real Interest Rates and Liquidity Tightening: To combat inflation, markets expect the Fed to maintain high interest rates or even resume rate hikes. In June 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% to 3.94%, hitting a four-month low, reflecting investor concerns over AI bubbles and recession risks rather than support for virtual currencies.
1.2 Reallocation of Safe-Haven Funds
During geopolitical crises, capital exhibits clear "hierarchical safe-haven" characteristics:
• First Tier: Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, the US dollar, and U.S. Treasuries are prioritized. Gold briefly surged to $5323 during the March 2026 conflict, and silver broke through $95.
• Second Tier: Crude oil, as a strategic resource, reflects supply disruption risks more than economic prosperity.
• Third Tier: Virtual currencies are quickly sold off in the initial phase of crises — Bitcoin fell below $100,000, exposing its risk asset nature.
Academic research shows that gold demonstrated "strong safe-haven properties" (significantly negatively correlated) with stablecoins like Tether during the pandemic, whereas crude oil only provided "weak safe-haven" effects. This sharply contrasts with the traditional narrative of "Bitcoin as digital gold."
II. Structural Responses in the Virtual Currency Market
2.1 Manifestation of Risk Asset Characteristics
The Middle East conflict at the end of February 2026 served as a "stress test" for Bitcoin’s safe-haven ability:
• Bitcoin: Dropped from $68,000 to $63,000 within 24 hours, a decline of over 6%, diverging completely from gold and oil trends.
• Ethereum: Fell by 9.08%, and SOL dropped over 10%, indicating that altcoins are more vulnerable during liquidity crises.
• Stablecoins: Trading volume of USDT and other stablecoins surged, becoming a "safe harbor" for investors fleeing volatility, rather than Bitcoin itself.
This phenomenon confirms academic conclusions: Bitcoin is positively correlated with commodity price indices (CRB) and negatively correlated with the VIX fear index, making it more akin to risk assets than safe-haven tools.
2.2 Innovation in Native Crypto Markets
Interestingly, during traditional market closures, crypto trading platforms unexpectedly became "price discovery venues" for commodities:
Hyperliquid’s Rise: This decentralized exchange offers perpetual contracts for gold and oil. During weekends when traditional markets are closed, gold contracts traded $173 million, and silver contracts traded $227 million. Traders leverage the 24/7 nature of crypto markets to hedge geopolitical risks on-chain.
Tokenization Trend: The process of tokenizing traditional assets like bonds and stocks is accelerating, indicating that all asset classes may eventually be tradable on-chain 24/7. This infrastructural innovation could change the interaction between virtual currencies and traditional commodities.
III. Medium- and Long-Term Impacts: Narrative Rebuilding and Institutional Evolution
3.1 The Collapse and Rebuilding of the "Digital Gold" Narrative
The surge in oil prices and resulting inflationary pressures should theoretically strengthen Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative (total supply 21 million). However, reality shows:
• Short Term: Liquidity tightening dominates, with Bitcoin and tech stocks declining simultaneously. In June 2025, correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index increased significantly.
• Medium Term: If inflation remains high and the Fed is forced to maintain tightening, virtual currencies may face a "stagflation bear market" — economic recession suppresses risk assets, while high inflation limits monetary policy space.
• Long Term: CoinShares research indicates nine consecutive weeks of net capital inflows into digital assets, suggesting investors are "adapting to the new normal" and re-evaluating Bitcoin’s strategic value.
3.2 The Double-Edged Sword of Regulation and Institutionalization
The contrasting cases of Iran and Israel offer valuable insights:
• Iran: Despite strict government regulation, crypto trading volume reached $1.5 billion in 2025, with 6.7 million active users. Residents view Bitcoin as a tool to hedge against rial devaluation, while the government attempts to achieve "limited transparency" through on-chain data monitoring.
• Israel: Total trading volume was only $616 million, but the regulatory framework is well-developed (25% capital gains tax, strict KYC), and a CBDC pilot is underway, demonstrating a path toward compliance.
The economic pressure from rising oil prices may force more countries to choose between "suppressing" and "embracing" virtual currencies.
3.3 Supply-Side Shock from Energy Costs
The virtual currency market faces a unique "energy paradox":
• Rising Mining Costs: Oil price increases push up electricity costs, raising the marginal costs of Bitcoin mining, potentially squeezing miner profits and affecting network security.
• Narrative Conflicts: Bitcoin is often criticized for energy consumption, and during energy crises, such criticism may intensify, reducing institutional investment appetite.
• Transition Opportunities: Some mining farms are shifting to renewable energy, and geopolitical shocks to traditional energy sources could accelerate the industry’s "green transition."
IV. Investment Strategy Insights
4.1 Dynamic Correlation Management
Investors should recognize that the correlation between virtual currencies and commodities is not static:
• Peace Time: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is low (even negative after 2019), making it a useful diversification tool.
• Crisis Periods: Liquidity crises cause all risk assets to decline simultaneously, with Bitcoin’s correlation to oil and stocks rising sharply.
• Recovery Phases: If inflation remains moderate and economic growth is steady, virtual currencies may regain their "inflation-hedging" narrative and rise in tandem with gold.
4.2 Scenario Analysis of Geopolitical Risks
| Scenario | Gold/Oil Trends | Virtual Currency Response | Strategy Recommendations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term geopolitical conflict | Surge then decline | Drop first, then rebound | Buy on dips during crises, set strict stop-losses |
| Long-term energy crisis | High-level oscillation | Continued liquidity tightening, pressure | Reduce risk asset holdings, increase stablecoins |
| Global stagflation | Gold rises, oil fluctuates | Divergence, Bitcoin may move independently | Focus on scarcity narratives, try small positions |
| Fed shifts to easing | Inflation expectations rise | Broad gains | Increase holdings of mainstream coins, participate in DeFi yields |
V. Conclusion: Between the Old Order and the New Paradigm
The surge in precious metals and oil prices acts like a mirror, revealing the true nature of the virtual currency market: it is neither a digital substitute for gold nor a fully independent risk asset, but a highly sensitive young market to liquidity conditions and undergoing institutionalization.
In the short term, safe-haven demand triggered by geopolitical conflicts will not flow into Bitcoin but will instead drain its liquidity; in the medium term, the tug-of-war between inflation and monetary policy will determine whether virtual currencies can regain their "inflation-hedging" narrative; in the long term, the development of 24/7 trading infrastructure, asset tokenization, and the formation of global regulatory frameworks may truly elevate virtual currencies to a status equal to traditional commodities.
As demonstrated by the perpetual gold contract traded on Hyperliquid over that weekend — when traditional markets are asleep, the crypto world is taking over price discovery. Perhaps one day in the future, when "safe-haven assets" are discussed again, Bitcoin will stand alongside gold and oil, no longer just a barometer of risk appetite. But until then, investors must clearly recognize: in the storm of soaring precious metals and oil, virtual currencies remain the most turbulent small boat, not the safest harbor.