Military operation against Iran — what to expect now?

What many had been warning about has happened: Israel and the U.S. have launched a military operation against Iran.

Those who were following the situation saw this coming, so it’s hardly a surprise. Crypto reacted immediately with a drop. The stock market is closed — we’ll see its reaction on Monday.

This situation is fundamentally different from previous “symbolic” strikes. We’re not talking about a one-off action, but an operation that could last for days. That means the risks and potential consequences are much more serious.

There are several possible scenarios — ranging from a “mild shock” to a full-blown “black swan.”

⚪️ Mild shock: The operation goes according to plan, both sides exchange strikes and, as before, declare victory. Markets gradually stabilize.

⚪️ More severe scenario: The U.S. becomes more deeply involved and the conflict drags on. This increases market uncertainty, raises military spending, may lead to new sanctions, and potentially escalates tensions with China.

⚪️ Worst-case scenario: A combination of negative factors, plus Iran deciding to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30% of global oil supply passes. It’s not hard to imagine what that would mean for oil and commodity prices. From there, a domino effect could unfold.

Which scenario ultimately plays out and how the conflict ends remains to be seen.

In any case, it’s important to be prepared for different outcomes. But even moments like this create opportunities: discounts on BTC, or for active traders — volatility and short setups.