Global asset management giants' latest holdings reveal AI investment shows "bull and bear divergence"

With the completion of the US 13F filings, the rebalancing strategies of global asset management giants in Q4 of last year have come to light. Faced with high valuations in tech stocks and market concerns over AI investment prospects, major institutions have shown significant divergence in their actions. UBS, Goldman Sachs, and others have reduced holdings in leading tech companies including Nvidia and Microsoft, while Silicon Valley “Venture Capital Godfather” Peter Thiel’s fund completely sold off its holdings in Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla. Meanwhile, BlackRock and Vanguard continued to increase their positions in multiple tech stocks.

According to the US 13F filings, in Q4 of last year, UBS reduced its holdings of Nvidia by 10.57%, selling 10.04 million shares; Microsoft by 7.64%, selling 2.32 million shares; Apple by 10.57%, selling 5.27 million shares; Amazon by 4.57%, selling 1.66 million shares; and Google by 9.05%, selling 2.2 million shares. Goldman Sachs reduced its Microsoft holdings by 5.86% (3.2 million shares), Tesla by 8.27% (2.47 million shares), Broadcom by 9.33% (3.43 million shares), and Meta by 13.51% (2.41 million shares).

Notably, in Q4 of last year, Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro Fund sold all its holdings in Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla. In fact, as early as Q3 last year, Thiel Macro had completely liquidated its 540,000 shares of Nvidia. By the end of last year’s Q4, the fund no longer held any long US equity positions that needed to be disclosed in 13F filings.

On the other side of the debate, BlackRock, Vanguard, and other institutions continued to add to their positions in leading tech stocks. Specifically, in Q4, BlackRock increased holdings in Nvidia by 14.55 million shares, Apple by 8.33 million, Microsoft by 10.04 million, Amazon by 12.03 million, and Google by 13.55 million. Vanguard added 43.15 million shares of Nvidia, which remains its largest holding. Additionally, Vanguard increased its positions in Apple, Microsoft, and Google by 26.86 million, 15.96 million, and 12.53 million shares respectively.

The divergence in asset management strategies reflects intense market debate over AI investment prospects. Recent results from a February global fund manager survey by US banks show that while global fund managers remain highly optimistic, 25% of respondents see the AI bubble as the primary tail risk. Additionally, 20% of fund managers consider buying top US tech stocks—including Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla—as the most crowded trade.

Liu Changfeng, Head of Market Strategy at UnionBank Funds, noted that recent large-cap tech companies have significantly increased capital expenditure in AI, demonstrating industry confidence in AI’s future potential but also putting considerable pressure on their short-term free cash flow. Meanwhile, recent advances in AI technology, especially in automation and efficiency improvements, are beginning to pose potential substitution risks to some traditional software and SaaS companies, adding volatility to the US stock market.

Recently, Nvidia, a global AI leader, reported record-high revenue and profits. However, despite this impressive performance, it failed to calm Wall Street’s nerves. The day after the earnings release, Nvidia’s stock plummeted over 5%, wiping out nearly $260 billion in market value overnight.

Looking ahead, Liu Changfeng believes AI will remain a long-term and evolving key investment theme. However, given that valuations of major US tech companies are already relatively high—especially when considering the price-to-free cash flow ratio—the surge in capital expenditure further amplifies this pressure. Investors should adopt a broader and more diversified perspective when positioning in AI.

Chen Xiayi, Senior Investment Strategist and Managing Director at Franklin Templeton Institute, stated that the breakthrough and widespread application of AI technology is a critical inflection point from transformation to leapfrog development. As technological fission accelerates, the focus in the US stock market is shifting toward substantive assessments of AI’s application strength and scope. Future investments will likely focus on AI “integrators” and enablers across software, IT services, and certain semiconductor sectors, rather than solely on hyperscale cloud providers and capital-intensive companies.

(Source: Shanghai Securities News)