What Will Happen After Khamenei's Death

(Personal Perspective)
1. Short Term: Strong Unity and Revenge Sentiments

In the context of Khamenei's assassination and death, Iran's primary reaction will be intense nationalism and anti-American, anti-Israeli sentiments.
This mood will temporarily suppress internal faction conflicts, leading to high levels of unity within Iranian society and political forces under the banners of "revenge" and "defending national sovereignty."
Iran and its proxy armed groups (such as Hezbollah, Houthi forces) are very likely to launch large-scale retaliatory actions, further consolidating domestic consensus.

2. Medium Term: Power Vacuum and Factional Struggles

As the emergency subsides, the power vacuum left by Khamenei will become the focal point of factional competition.
Hardliners (Revolutionary Guards): As Iran's most powerful organization, they are likely to seize the opportunity to expand their influence and push for more aggressive domestic and foreign policies.
Moderates and Reformists: They may leverage public dissatisfaction with economic hardships to demand political and economic reforms, leading to direct conflicts with hardliners.
If the election process for the new Supreme Leader is not smooth or is manipulated, these factional struggles could become public, causing societal divisions.

3. Long Term: Deepening Social Divisions

Iranian society already faces profound generational and class conflicts. The younger generation and secular groups have long been dissatisfied with the current regime.
If new rulers (especially the Revolutionary Guards) adopt repressive measures to maintain control, and if economic conditions continue to worsen, these temporarily suppressed conflicts may erupt more violently, pushing the country toward deeper division.
Overall, Khamenei's death will cause Iran to be unprecedentedly united in the short term due to external threats, but in the long run, internal power struggles and social conflicts will pose serious risks of national fragmentation.