Unfavorable Start: The probability of a sharp decline in short-term trading volume is unlikely again

Today, hot rolled coil prices initially declined and then rose. The main contract closed at 3,195, down 0.87% for the day. In the spot market, prices in major cities across the country mostly retreated by 10-30 yuan/ton, with cold-rolled prices falling by 30 yuan/ton. Export prices remain relatively stable. Regarding supply, there were fewer maintenance shutdowns during the holiday, mostly maintaining pre-holiday maintenance plans, so supply pressure is relatively stable. On the demand side, the market was weak, with little trading on the first day after the holiday, and overall sentiment was cautious. It is understood that inventories in major cities in South and North China accumulated significantly after the holiday, which may suppress short-term market sentiment. Overall, on the first day after the holiday, the black chain did not rebound with the capital market; instead, it opened sharply lower, mainly due to macroeconomic and fundamental factors not providing positive expectations. However, given the current low valuation basis, the probability of a deep decline in the main hot coil contracts is low. In the short term, the market is likely to remain weak and volatile. (SMM)