Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: How Will A-shares Open? March Price Increase Logic Continues, Funds Seek Safe Havens, Boosting "HALO Trading"

CITIC Securities: Narrative-driven and Price Increase Catalyze Continuing Trends

Narrative-driven and price increase catalysts remain the main drivers of the market. Among them, typical high-gain industries such as precious metals, charging and swapping, power equipment, and bulk chemicals are sentiment-driven; industries with moderate gains like intelligent driving, media and gaming, humanoid robots, and white wine are also sentiment-driven; some industries with very high gains, such as rare earths and minor metals, wind power, and chip design, are categorized as fundamentally driven; industries with moderate gains but high discussion heat, like North American AI computing power and cement building materials, are classified as fundamentally dominated.

Whether driven by event catalysts or signals from volume and price levels, the clues from price increases and AI narratives remain within a safe zone. The outbreak of geopolitical risks in Iran and the rising expectations of policies related to “anti-involution” around the Two Sessions may continue to strengthen the price increase signals. From a allocation perspective, AI exposure plus supply constraints equal price increase expectations. It is expected that the market driven by price increases will continue through March.

Huatai Securities: Focus on Policy Battles

Spring volatility is one of the more certain calendar effects in the A-share market, with clear early signs this year. The underlying logic of this calendar effect may still be valid but shows some differences from previous years: 1) The high trading volume after the holiday indicates ample liquidity, but the visibility of risk premium breakthroughs is reduced, and the market’s upward slope may slow compared to previous years, increasing the need to identify structural opportunities; 2) Regarding style, questions remain whether the fund shift from technology to cyclical sectors after the holiday is premature. The switch from small-cap to large-cap stocks still requires a liquidity inflection point, a recovery trend in large-cap value stocks, and coordinated capital conditions, with a window expected around March-April. For allocation, focus on thematic investments and prosperity strategies, prioritizing policy-oriented themes, and sectors like communication equipment, minor metals, rare metals, batteries, and building materials.

Shenwan Hongyuan: Also Discussing “HALO Trading”

After the Spring Festival, the A-share market’s reflection of long-term technology narratives was weak, but it responded very positively to the visible “new and old economy inflation.” This relates to the mapping of “HALO trading” in A-shares and the disturbance caused by the Fed’s easing expectations, as well as the relatively full development of the tech narrative beforehand. A mid-term “second phase rally” is expected, with a more likely start around 2026. The two-phase rally’s leading sectors and styles are consistent: “inflation assets” in this era are technology and strategic resources. The short-term inflation directions with high visibility are mainly from structurally advantageous sectors: cyclical commodities driven by limited supply (steel, coal) may see short-term surges, but demand validation in March-April raises doubts about sustained price increases. For pro-cyclical allocation, focus on strategic assets inflation (non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil, shipping). The mapping of new economic inflation to traditional sectors remains the strongest short-term direction, with opportunities in internal combustion engines, fiberglass, optical fiber, and storage.

CMB International: Geopolitical Conflicts Intensify, Focus on Resources and Technology

Looking ahead to March, the index remains volatile near recent highs. Due to regulatory signals of cooling and large ETF outflows, the market is no longer favoring large-cap stocks. The core indices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the near term. With the upcoming Two Sessions and the release of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” market focus will revolve around policy expectations and implementation directions. Geopolitical factors are the most significant marginal variables affecting A-shares; the US-Iran situation will influence commodity trends and global macro logic. Additionally, US-China communication remains important. Market styles are expected to become more balanced, with small and mid-cap stocks likely to continue outperforming. The core themes remain pro-cyclical price increases and AI hardware expansion. Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, energy metals, minor metals), basic chemicals, machinery (automation, engineering machinery), power equipment (batteries, grid, wind power), semiconductors, and utilities (electricity).

CITIC Securities: Geopolitical Tensions Rise, Asset Revaluation

Recent external and internal disturbances have increased, with bullish and bearish forces still vying. The spring rally is expected to be nearing its end, shifting from an upward phase to consolidation. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict is unlikely to ease in the short term, likely keeping international oil and precious metals prices strong, with strategic assets expected to maintain long-term premiums. Demand for AI computing power and capital expenditure is expanding strongly, with spillover effects on segment industries worth monitoring, potentially leading to performance realization around 2026. The “HALO” trade is sweeping globally, prompting a revaluation of physical assets, focusing on high-barrier real assets and AI infrastructure. Key sectors include petroleum and petrochemicals, shipping, non-ferrous metals, military industry, semiconductors, power equipment, and AI supply chains.

GF Securities: How to View the So-Called 2028 “Global Intelligence Crisis”?

The idea of “technological substitution of employment” appears in every technological revolution, but societal employment is influenced not only by technological laws but also by more fundamental economic laws. Technological progress impacts employment through two forces: substitution effects, which displace labor from certain tasks; and restorative effects, which create new complex tasks where humans have comparative advantages, restoring labor share. Historically, technological progress generally supports the “employment-neutral” hypothesis. Currently, global stock markets show a pattern of “strong in Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, weak in the US.” US stocks are increasingly risk-averse, with strong earnings overshadowed by fears of AI disruption and banking credit risks, coupled with persistent inflation and hawkish expectations, putting pressure on tech giants and favoring defensive energy dividends. Chinese assets show a pattern of “strong A-shares, weak Hong Kong stocks, and pressure on Chinese concept stocks.” The valuation expansion and increased breadth of A-shares resonate with the improvement of nominal growth cycles, with mid-cap outperforming large and small caps, driven by non-ferrous metals and computing power boosting communication sectors.

Guojin Securities: China as HALO, Physical Assets as Ark

Currently, the world faces technological challenges to industrial order and regional conflicts challenging globalization. Physical assets, often overlooked during prosperous order periods, will become systemically important. Investors are shifting focus to infrastructure and resource sectors driven by AI, while also worrying about AI’s negative impact on high-value, light-asset industries. With the “HALO” concept emerging, sectors less easily replaced by AI are becoming safe havens. Compared to US stocks, A-shares’ revenue is concentrated in mining and manufacturing industries less susceptible to AI replacement, with most A-share listed companies holding tangible assets at a higher proportion of total assets than their US counterparts. Global investors may find that the resilient “HALO” assets they seek are widely distributed in China, where the productive capacity of assets will become irreplaceable. “Productivity equals wealth” is gradually becoming reality. China’s manufacturing asset revaluation has begun, with capital returning and domestic demand recovery underway.

Western Securities: Accelerated K-wave Depression

By 2026, the “three unchanged” during the depression phase will accelerate the trend—RMB appreciation remains the same, but the pace is controlled; global secondary inflation continues; de-globalization and super cycle of commodities remain unchanged. Historical experience shows that during wartime, fiat currency depreciates rapidly, leading to sharp commodity price increases, emphasizing the super cycle of commodities. These “three unchanged” factors mean the trend in 2026 is not a turning point but an acceleration. The 1978 Iranian Islamic Revolution and the second oil crisis, and the 2026 US-Israel war against Iran, will drive commodities into a new super cycle phase. For A-shares, moderate inflation in 2026 will translate into a boom for catch-up countries, especially in refining, precious metals, non-ferrous metals, coal, and shipping.

Huachuang Securities: Firmly Reaffirm the Reflation Bull Market Mainline

Market adjustments before the holiday may have been completed, with trading sentiment warming after the Spring Festival. The characteristic of slow rise and quick fall with high Sharpe ratio is increasingly evident, driven by the reversal of investment and financing landscape, abundant free cash flow, and the transition of ROE from old to new drivers. Continued liquidity improvement and corporate cash flow activation support inflation and profit recovery, further fueling a bull market. Focus on cyclically favorable sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, building materials, steel, machinery) benefiting from tight supply and demand shifts; also emphasize technology innovation driven by the “14th Five-Year Plan,” with recent ETF inflows into communication equipment, satellites, and robotics.

Yangtze Securities: What to Buy Before and After the Two Sessions?

Historical experience shows that the first year of each “Five-Year Plan” and the Two Sessions are more likely to focus on the main industry themes of that year. With liquidity in a bull market, the performance of A-shares around the Two Sessions correlates strongly with financing balances. Supported by policies, the market is expected to continue its gradual upward trend, favoring a slow bull. The main policy themes aligned with the “14th Five-Year Plan” include: 1) Under macro geopolitical friction and energy revolution, focus on metals, mineral resources, and new and old energy sectors; 2) Under the unified national market, focus on quality upgrades in key industries like chemicals, machinery, and shipping; 3) In technological revolution, focus on AI infrastructure and hard tech sectors such as computing power, storage, and power-related segments; 4) Under policies to expand domestic demand, focus on service consumption like aviation and hotels.

(Article source: Securities Firms China)