[Red Envelope] Reader Share (27): Eight years in the military, twice experienced the financing and capital bureau, read over a hundred investment books, and finally found a reliable trading system.

This article moved me deeply and made me feel grateful. I favor military service, and the first time I saw this brother, I sensed a familiar aura.

He has a military background, professional experience, firsthand knowledge of the capital markets, financial freedom, and has experienced self-doubt from consecutive losses. He has also been refined by social interactions and capital games. What’s valuable is that he doesn’t treat the stock market as a casino, nor does he see technical analysis as mysticism. Instead, he views trend quantification as a survivable system that is falsifiable, executable, and reliable over the long term.

He shared his two personal financing and acquisition experiences to tell everyone: life and the stock market are similar—many wins and losses are not decided inside the market. What you can control are your system, discipline, mindset, and even how you conduct yourself.

This writing contains experience, reflection, and vision. Some of the words behind the text require careful thought to truly understand. I hope every friend who reads to the end gains something.

As for the technical details of trend quantification mentioned in the article, there’s no need for excessive commentary. With his insight and execution, it will take time—several years—to achieve great results.

As usual, I publish the original text unchanged.

Welcome everyone to continue submitting articles.

Personal notes, not for strangers. Thank you for understanding.

Inside and outside the market—Reflections on reading “Trend Quantification”

Thanks to my mentor’s guidance, which illuminated my path. In “Flying Life 3,” Sha Yi has a line: “Many competitions are not decided on the field,” but studying “Trend Quantification” gave me the opportunity to find the right path in the stock market arena.

My mentor encouraged me to submit articles several times. Today, I finally put pen to paper because my first real trade is about to hit the take-profit point. So let’s start with that first trade.

On January 19, I bought BG Co., Ltd., after a negative report was pushed by a financial app on the 18th. I’ve forgotten the exact details, but the maximum loss was estimated at a few million. I usually glance at the fundamentals of the stock when I see such news. My impression at the time was that the company’s rare earth theme hadn’t been updated in the software yet. Combining this with fundamentals, I set a reminder for a previous low, planning to wait for a trend quantification low point to see how it developed. Unexpectedly, the next day, it opened with a limit-down, but the buy and sell orders, cancellations, and opening volume all showed obvious fake moves. I then accumulated a position in the afternoon. (That evening, I reflected: my technical moves were unstandardized, and my timing was poor.) On the 22nd, near the trend line, I reduced half of my position as planned. On the 30th, I exited at the high of the hourly chart, but my execution was not refined—the selling price was worse than my initial reduction. Later, I found that its lower trend line was gradually rising. When it stabilized above the upper trend line at the end of the 9th, I bought again. On the 26th, after a high point on the hourly trend quantification, I cut half again, planning to take profit at the individual stock high.

Doubt and falsification are personal talents. During my eight years serving the country in my youth, I received extensive training, developed my own methodology and consistent logic. After demobilization, I applied this system in business and achieved good results (more details later). Many might think I’m showing off, but two months ago, I wouldn’t dare to act similarly. Since late 2024, I decided to focus mainly on family, and I made about a dozen trades based on similar logic, only two of which succeeded. That’s the harsh reality—losing money also breeds self-doubt. Fortunately, I came across my mentor’s articles. Over the past month, I’ve been diligently learning, and I feel I’ve not only improved in the stock market but also significantly corrected my interpersonal skills. A reminder: the parts beyond technical analysis in my mentor’s articles are also invaluable—each word requires careful reflection. Reading them at least ten times is the minimum.

A fellow martial arts enthusiast once shared a story about being excluded when asking colleagues about trend line techniques. I believe anyone eager to learn sincerely would deeply understand this bitterness. There are countless stock gurus and courses worldwide, but true skills are hard to acquire. It might be because some keep secrets, pass on techniques but not secrets (like Chan Theory), or simply lack technical ability, relying on cherry-picking and hindsight analysis—after all, “trading stocks is less about stocks and more about traders.”

My mentor’s “Trend Quantification System” has become my greatest reliance, transforming my doubts into confidence for two reasons: First, he is the only one emphasizing the risks and responses of his system throughout; I’ve read over a hundred finance books, watched 15 hours of daily financial live streams, and subscribed to mainstream financial software VIPs, so I have some say in this area. Second, careful backtesting shows that the trend quantification system has the best compatibility—various trading methods I’ve found can trace their roots within its logic, but not outside. Third, since learning, I’ve tested fifty virtual trades. If I generate an index from the core stock pool, it outperforms the market by over ten points. This is just the beginning; many details still need exploration and validation. P.S.: I really envy those senior brothers and sisters who had mentors guiding them step by step.

Here’s a joke: I once randomly changed the MACD parameters without remembering when. My mentor pointed out that the high point confirmation was a day off in my review. I pondered and verified all night, then sent a message early in the morning to bother my mentor. Fortunately, he was generous—if it were someone else, I’m sure they would have deleted the question immediately. Thinking of my frantic state back then makes me laugh.

Back to the main topic, I want to share two work experiences and some outside stories.

After graduating from university, I served the country and achieved some small successes. When I demobilized, my former leader invited my new boss for a meal and helped connect with two large state-owned enterprises. I followed up for half a year and won several big bids for the company. The boss rewarded me with company shares. Some colleagues thought I was naive—since the company wasn’t profitable and had no dividends, the boss took the commission. I knew those bids wouldn’t be mine, but I was involved to accelerate the process for various reasons, so I didn’t mind.

Half a year later, something miraculous happened: the company’s CEO, CFO, and several senior executives resigned collectively—the company hadn’t paid wages for half a year due to unmet performance targets. The next morning, the boss called me and two other shareholders to ring the bell.

Later, I learned that the boss had encapsulated the company’s business in a shell company, using another team at a different office to complete pre-IPO roadshows, audits, and all preparations, successfully listing the company without anyone noticing. They also made far more profit than I did.

My second career experience was at a company that completed Series A funding. Due to management issues, most frontline stores were loss-making and closed. The Series A shareholders and the chairman fought for power, and internal struggles were intense. A few months after I joined, my mother was diagnosed with a serious illness. The boss helped arrange surgery with a top specialist, which I deeply appreciated. Through efforts, our department’s performance skyrocketed, accounting for 70% of the company’s revenue. I received stock options and was appointed co-CEO. Just as I was ready to make a big move, an inexplicable event occurred: the company suddenly issued a red-headed document forcing my department to halt production, claiming that the digitalization process couldn’t generate added value. A tech company, yet my team of over a hundred professionals was just sitting there, typing data—communication was impossible.

In fact, behind this was the boss’s agreement with a B-round investor for a merger and acquisition. The company’s assets were transferred at a low price, with most of the consideration in the form of shares of the acquiring company. The halted production was to pressure the Series A shareholders into concessions—they received little cash and most of the consideration was in stock. The unproductive parts of the business were replaced with high-GMV, loss-making external operations, with costs deferred through financial tricks, making the acquisition’s financial reports look good during the period. When I read my mentor’s article on stock personality theory, I was struck: a company’s stock price fluctuations largely reflect the personality traits of its actual controller. I was disappointed and disillusioned, so I quickly transferred my options and left.

My initial understanding was limited; I was afraid of misleading others. My personal view is that if the stock market is a racing track, then wins and losses are largely not decided inside the market—only with high probability, not certainty. The trend quantification system my mentor teaches is a way to win in racing, rankings, and information layers, relying on genuine skill when conditions are unfavorable.

Here are some personal insights from my years of detours:

1. No one or anything in this market can give you 100% answers. If they claim to, they are probably breaking the law and will pay a heavy price outside the market. Don’t try shortcuts like copying others or proxy trading to get rich overnight. (I deliberately avoid reading my mentor’s articles on speculative stocks and ultra-short-term trading to prevent unrealistic illusions before I master the skills.) All positive or negative news and hot topics are neither sufficient nor necessary—they only serve as catalysts for trend-following.

2. Stop-loss should be planned during the trading plan phase and executed strictly when the time comes.

3. Whether the stock price rises after selling or falls after buying is not the criterion for judging a trade’s correctness. The key is whether you can execute your plan and maintain discipline. Each trade should give you a probabilistic advantage, increasing your statistical edge—such as over 50 trades or three months of trading—to effectively evaluate your system.

4. Different timeframes in stocks have some similarities (still being refined). When buy points at lower levels fail repeatedly, the probability that higher levels will also fail increases, and vice versa.

5. Do not blindly dismiss any technical analysis in the market. They can sometimes be surprisingly effective. But the real reason to buy still centers on trend quantification—operate at high and low points when they appear, wait patiently when they don’t, and resist temptation.

I am still learning and hope to someday become part of the team that my mentor aims to cultivate. Whether it’s resisting the suppression of economic dominance or dealing with internal corruption that damages market mechanisms, I want to contribute my modest strength to create a cleaner trading environment for future generations, increasing the factors that determine victory inside the market.