Morgan Stanley: AI will not lead to early retirement; the workforce will shift to entirely new roles

【Source: Global Times】

【Global Times Financial Report】According to foreign media such as Fortune, recent market concerns about artificial intelligence replacing white-collar jobs continue to rise, with software sector valuations significantly retreating, and several tech executives issuing warnings about employment impacts. Morgan Stanley’s latest cross-asset research report indicates that AI will not cause widespread permanent unemployment; workers will shift to many new roles that do not yet exist and will need retraining to adapt to the transition.

The report shows that since the end of 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio of software stocks has fallen by about 33%, as investors worry about AI automation impacting a large number of knowledge-based jobs. Elon Musk, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Microsoft AI head Mustafa Suleyman, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei all predict that AI could achieve large-scale white-collar automation within the next one to two decades. However, economists are skeptical of this timeline, believing such statements are more about supporting the high valuations of tech companies.

Morgan Stanley analysts cite over 150 years of technological change experience, noting that each industrial revolution—from electrification and the internet to computing—has reshaped the labor market but has not replaced the entire workforce. For example, the proliferation of spreadsheets automated some bookkeeping roles but also created entirely new financial professions. AI will similarly change job types, occupational structures, and skill requirements—some roles will be automated, some enhanced by AI, and many new jobs will emerge.

The report envisions that emerging roles such as Chief AI Officer, AI Governance and Compliance Specialist, AI Personalization Strategist, Smart Grid Analyst, and Computational Geneticist will rapidly appear. Hybrid roles combining product management and engineering, as well as new models like concept prototyping, will become widespread.

On the market level, Morgan Stanley believes the current panic over AI disruption lacks fundamental support. Service and cyclical industries, which are affected by these fears, account for only about 13% of the S&P 500 market cap. Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok warns that retail speculation and high options trading activity increase market vulnerability and volatility risk.

The report also notes that this round of AI may be qualitatively different, directly impacting cognitive, creative, and decision-making tasks. Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and economist David Autor agree that pure automation technology could further devalue human expertise, potentially decoupling corporate profits from employment.

Data shows that by Q4 2025, 30% of AI application companies have achieved measurable improvements in financial performance or productivity, up from 16% a year earlier. The creation of new roles and profit distribution patterns will ultimately verify AI’s actual impact on the employment market.