XRP Descending Triangle: From Consolidation to Potential Breakout

On technical charts, XRP shows a clear geometric pattern called a descending triangle by analysts. This configuration forms when the price is squeezed between a horizontal support line and consecutively lower highs, creating an upper boundary. Such triangles often signal a potential sharp move in one direction.

The current XRP situation began to take shape in mid-December 2025, when the price hovered around $2.01. At that time, the descending triangle displayed classic signs: each bounce pushed buyers back from previous levels, and trading volumes gradually decreased during this consolidation.

Anatomy of the descending triangle on XRP

The descending triangle in XRP consists of several key components. The horizontal support line held around $2.00, resisting repeated attempts by sellers to break below this level. Meanwhile, the upper boundary of the triangle compressed the price from $2.22 down to $2.15, creating visible downward pressure.

Forming this triangle took about two weeks, during which the market exhibited typical behavior: each attempt by buyers to push the price higher resulted in lower highs, while sellers defended the previous support level. Trading volume during this consolidation steadily waned, which is a typical signal before a potential breakout.

Forecast of decline and break below $2.00

Technical analysis theory states that the measured move of a descending triangle depends on its height. The formation’s height on XRPUSD was about 22 cents (from $2.22 to $2.00), so the target level after a confirmed breakout is calculated by subtracting this height from the breakout point.

If the price breaks below $2.00 with a 4-hour candle close below that mark, a decline by the triangle’s height would suggest a level around $1.72. This would mean a roughly 16% drop from the center of the formation. Currently, at $1.34 (as of February 28, 2026, with a -1.68% change over 24 hours), the market has already moved significantly toward this projected target.

Alternative scenarios and cancellation conditions

The descending triangle remains valid only until one of its cancellation conditions is met. If XRP clearly rises above the upper trendline at $2.15328, it would indicate a shift in control to buyers. Such a move would open the path to resistance near $2.22848 and invalidate the bearish outlook.

Therefore, the upper trendline is a critical marker to watch. As long as XRP stays below this level, downward pressure persists. However, any strong upward reaction closing above this level would alter the short-term forecast.

Indicators support a bearish structure

Supporting the analysis of the descending triangle, technical indicators provided relevant signals. XRP traded below its 50-period exponential moving average (50 EMA), which traditionally indicates dominance of supply in the market. Momentum oscillators (such as RSI and MACD) were in the lower half of their ranges, further supporting a bearish trend during this consolidation.

Long-term fractal: a historical parallel develops

Beyond the short-term technical pattern, some analysts, including Amonyx, identified a potential long-term fractal based on monthly charts. This hypothesis compares the 2014-2017 period with the current 2018-2025 cycle. In both cases, XRP forms broad consolidation near a critical resistance level around $2.00 before breaking upward.

In the previous cycle, XRP moved in accumulation zones for years before a dramatic vertical rally. The current structure shows similar behavior: a long rounded pattern with higher lows pressing against the same horizontal barrier. Fractal theory suggests that if history repeats, the market could start a strong upward move after confirming a breakout above this repeatedly tested resistance.

Critical conditions for confirming the fractal hypothesis

However, the fractal scenario depends on one key condition: XRP must hold support above the retested former resistance line. If the price remains above this level, the fractal hypothesis remains valid, and the parallel with the previous cycle holds.

Conversely, if XRP falls below this critical zone, the fractal pattern would be compromised. In that case, the previous cycle would no longer serve as a reliable roadmap for long-term market development.

Synthesis of short-term and long-term perspectives

The descending triangle on shorter timeframes and the long-term fractal on monthly charts create an interesting contrast of analytical scenarios. The short-term triangle indicates a likelihood of falling to $1.72 or lower if a break below $2.00 is confirmed. Meanwhile, the long-term fractal suggests that after this consolidation, a significant upward rally could begin if key support levels are maintained.

Both prospects could unfold sequentially: the descending triangle completes its formation with a breakdown (short-term outlook), followed by the long-term fractal activating an upward cycle (long-term outlook). Such a sequence is common in crypto markets, where technical structures interlock.

What to watch on the chart

Key markers to monitor remain unchanged. To confirm the descending triangle, a clear break and close below $2.00 on the 4-hour chart are required. To invalidate this scenario, a move above $2.15328 with a subsequent higher close is needed. Any action within this range continues consolidation amid indecision.

The current XRP price at $1.34 shows the market is already moving toward the targets predicted by the descending triangle formed in December. Both the short-term technical triangle and the long-term fractal remain relevant analytical bases for understanding potential XRP developments across different timeframes.