Holding Bitcoin for at least three years is the only way to avoid losses. In summary, Bitwise's analysis shows that the probability of losing profit when holding Bitcoin for more than 3 years is only 0.7%, decreasing to 0.2% after 5 years, and zero percent afterward.

Bitwise analysis shows that the probability of holding Bitcoin for over three years and incurring a loss is only 0.7%, dropping to 0.2% for five years, and 0% for ten years. Currently, the market price of $65,000 is above the realized prices for 3-5 years, despite the higher short-term holder risk of loss.