Will Ethereum struggle to break through in 2090? Technical patterns reveal the market's true intentions

Current ETH price fluctuates around $1.90K, slowly rebounding from a low of 1736 to near 2090. This seemingly gentle upward process is precisely where many traders tend to get trapped. Unlike sharp surges that trigger collective FOMO, this gradual rebound is more confusing—it gradually rekindles hope amid despair, yet constantly tests that hope.

The “Trap” Behind the Slow Rise—The Truth from 1736 to 2090

During the rebound from 1736 to 2090, the price shows a zigzag pattern of “rise–pullback–rise again,” but no clear sign of a major upward breakout. Behind this seemingly calm movement, intense psychological battles are taking place among market participants.

The 4-hour chart shows moving averages beginning to converge, with the short-term MA showing signs of reversal as the price approaches the MA system again. The key point here is: MA99 remains dominant, and a true trend reversal has not yet been confirmed. This stage is called a “rebound pattern correction structure,” not a full “trend reversal.” Many people tend to deceive themselves here, mistaking the early rebound for the start of a new bull market.

The Truth from Technical Indicators: When Is a Real Reversal Signal?

A genuine trend reversal requires meeting several strict conditions. First, MA7 must fully break above and stay above MA25, accompanied by a significant increase in volume. Second, the price must effectively break through previous highs. Lastly, market sentiment indicators—such as financing rates—should shift from negative to positive, but not overheat; the spot-futures basis should also gradually turn from negative to positive.

Currently, these conditions are not fully met. Financing rates are still negative, and the basis remains negative, indicating the market has not yet turned truly optimistic. This suggests that the current rise is not driven by retail investors panic-buying or emotional trading, but by two more rational forces: first, short sellers closing positions and stopping losses; second, institutions quietly accumulating at lows. Compared to those rises driven by crowd frenzy, this “calm accumulation” process is slower but generally healthier and more sustainable.

The Test at 2090—How Volume Will Decide the Next Move

The 2090 level is not just a number; it’s the most critical testing point in this rebound. From a technical perspective, 2090 sits right in an area of early concentrated trading and is a key cost line where many retail traders are trapped at high levels. As the price slowly climbs back to this level, different market participants will face choices:

Some trapped traders will rush to cut losses near their cost basis; others will hesitate; some will shift from bearish to neutral or bullish. This zone is likely to see repeated battles and oscillations. If volume can steadily break above 2100, the technical pattern will shift from “passive rebound” to “active trend attempt.” Conversely, if the price fails to hold and gets pushed back down, it will just be a typical range-bound correction, with a high probability of continuing downward to find support.

My Trading Principle: Wait for the Market to Prove Itself

My strategy is simple—I won’t aggressively buy near the despairing 1736 level, nor will I heavily add positions in the emotional correction zone around 2090. I prefer to keep a light position and let the market breathe. Of course, once volume clearly increases and breaks through these key levels, I will consider gradually increasing my holdings. I’m not betting on direction; I’m waiting for the market to validate itself with data and behavior.

From a deeper perspective, the seemingly ordinary movement from 1736 to 2090 tests not just technical prediction skills but also the psychological resilience of participants. True profits often emerge when the crowd is most desperate and least attentive. This phase is just a test—whether you have the courage to hold your judgment when there’s no applause.

So the question is: Do you think 2090 will mark the end of the rebound, or the start of a new trend?