U.S. and Israel airstrike Tehran! Oil prices are soaring, what about the A-shares?

The Middle East is completely fried, and just today (February 28), Israel directly showdown and officially announced its action against Iran. This is not the kind of “shadow war” on the Syrian border or secretly bombing a scientist, this time it was a real knife and gun and a big fanfare to hit Iran itself, and even the United States personally ended up doing it together. To put it simply, this is what it is: [Buy stocks]
The Israeli defense minister spoke directly, saying that this was a “preemptive strike”. About 30 targets were bombed, all in Tehran, the heart of Iran.
I heard that even near the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, the presidential palace, and their intelligence building were visited by missiles.
The United States is also involved, which is the most critical. In the past, the United States may have handed a knife in the back, but this time it is a direct confirmation that the US military participated in the airstrike. This shows that the United States and Israel are determined to make this vote, and the previous diplomatic negotiations (which were just discussed in Switzerland a few days ago) are completely useless.
The whole country of Israel has sounded the alarm and entered a state of emergency, and the people have been called to hide in the bomb shelter, for fear that Iran will retaliate immediately. After all, if you blow up the core department of the capital, this beam will be big, and Iran will definitely go crazy.
In general, this is turning the table upside down. Before, everyone was still there to guess “to fight or not to fight”, but now there is no need to guess, start fighting. And this fight, maybe it is the rhythm of an all-out war, the nerves of the whole world are estimated to be tense, and the next few days will definitely be a big drama.
To put it bluntly, there is only one reason for this action: Israel and the United States feel that if they don’t do it, Iran will build a nuclear bomb and ride on their heads.

1. The negotiations completely collapsed
   Two days ago, the United States and Iran secretly talked in Switzerland. The United States has made a very dead statement this time: dismantle all your nuclear facilities and hand over all the enriched uranium, otherwise there is nothing to talk about. Iran is also tough: Don’t even think about it, nuclear technology is my lifeblood, and I will never give up.
   As a result, the table was overturned. At first glance, the United States saw that since it was useless to persuade each other, it would just start working.
2. Israel is really afraid
   For Israel, this is not an ordinary quarrel, it is a matter of life and death.
   Their intelligence shows that Iran is close to building an atomic bomb. If you think about it, Iran already has thousands of missiles in its hands, and if it is equipped with nuclear warheads, then Israel’s territory is not enough to hide.
   Israel’s logic is simple: instead of waiting for you to build it and beat me, it is better for me to smash your house now so that you will never be able to make it. This is called preemptive.
3. The United States is determined to take care of it this time
   In the past, the United States may have been handing knives and shouting behind them, but this time the Trump administration has come to an end.
   The current idea of the United States is that whether it is sanctions or negotiations, it cannot hold Iran back, and it must be ruthless to directly cripple Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, and even want to use this to bring down the current Iranian regime. Moreover, the United States has set up two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Middle East, just to tell the world: This time I am playing for real, and no one wants to stop it.
4. New hatred and old hatred are counted together
   Over the years, Iran has supported a bunch of little brothers (like Hezbollah and the Houthis) around it, causing trouble for Israel every day. Israel feels that it is useless to just beat these little brothers, and it must capture the thief first and directly to Tehran, the capital of Iran, and blow up their headquarters and nuclear facilities in order to fundamentally solve the problem.
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   Well, here comes the main event, the impact on the financial market in several aspects:
   First, the global market
   Oil prices take off directly: this is the most direct. If Iran is in a hurry and blocks the Strait of Hormuz (the world’s oil artery) or blows up a few oil fields, crude oil prices can soar in an instant. Brent crude oil breaking through $100 or even $120 is not a dream.
   Gold becomes fragrant gluttony: buying gold in troubled times will never go out of style. When everyone is afraid, they will definitely rush to grab gold to avoid risks, and the price of gold is estimated to rise.
   U.S. stocks and European stocks have to fall: war means uncertainty, and capital hates this the most. In addition, oil prices have risen, inflation is going to rise again, the Fed’s dream of cutting interest rates may be shattered, and the stock market is likely to pull back, especially aviation, logistics, which rely on oil to eat, which is bearish.
   The dollar may be stronger: Although the United States is involved, the world is in chaos, and funds are still used to hiding in the dollar, and the dollar index may strengthen in the short term.
   Second, the impact on our A-shares: A-shares have always been a physique that falls and does not rise, and it is difficult for us to be alone when the periphery is chaotic, but the structural differentiation will be very obvious:
   (Bearish sector)
   Aviation, shipping, logistics: As soon as oil prices rise, the costs of these industries will explode directly, profits will be eaten, and stock prices will definitely be under pressure.
   Manufacturing industry that relies on imported raw materials: If the prices of commodities (copper, aluminum, petroleum derivatives) generally rise, the cost pressure of midstream and downstream manufacturing enterprises will be very high.
   Overall sentiment: On the first day of the war, the market is likely to open lower, and foreign capital (northbound funds) may cause heavy stocks (such as Moutai and CATL) to fall due to risk aversion, and market sentiment will be more panicked.
   (Positive sector)
   Oil, coal, and natural gas sectors: This is a typical “war money”. Like the “three barrels of oil” (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC) because of the expectation of product price increases, the stock price is likely to rise sharply.
   Gold and non-ferrous metals: following the international gold price, it is definitely the object of funds.
   Military sector: As soon as the geopolitical conflict escalates, everyone will think “we also have to strengthen national defense”, and military stocks (aircraft manufacturing, missile manufacturing, and informatization) usually have a wave of hype.
   Agriculture (partial): If the war affects food exports (although Iran is not a staple food exporter, the turmoil will affect the global supply chain), fertilizers, pesticides or seed sectors may also be piggyback speculated.
   Third, advice to ordinary people
   Don’t panic to cut meat: If it’s just a big drop at the opening, don’t rush to sell on the floor. The decline caused by this kind of breaking news is often more emotional than substantial, and it may be repaired after two days of stabilization.
   Don’t blindly chase highs: If you see that oil and gold are going crazy, don’t rush in to take over at this time. This kind of news-driven surge is easy to take a day trip, and it is easy to stand guard when chasing high.
   Fourth, to summarize: this matter is frightened by the A-share market, and the structure is reshuffled. The index may not look good, but the three lines of oil, gold, and military industry are likely to be popular.
   ——————
5. The death toll in Iranian primary schools has increased to 51.

It reminds me of the dialogue when the war correspondent interviewed a little boy in Gaza.
What are your dreams when you grow up?
We don’t grow big…
This is a game with no winners, only the tears of civilians flowing silently in the flames of war.
2. Looking back at the US stock market, the Dow Jones (-1.05%), Nasdaq (-0.92%), and S&P 500 (-0.43%) closed down across the board yesterday. The market should have smelled gunpowder in advance, so this wave of decline is likely the result of early selling.
For example, there are many traditional industrial and energy giants in the Dow, which are the most sensitive to war and oil price fluctuations, so they have fallen the worst. Although Nasdaq technology stocks usually resist falls, investors also tend to sell high-risk assets on the eve of the war, causing the Nasdaq to follow suit. As for the S&P, it is a bellwether for large-cap stocks, with the smallest decline, but it also confirms the pessimism of the market.
Here is an additional emphasis on the reason why Nvidia continues to fall by -4.16%, to put it bluntly, it is risk aversion, to make a simple analogy: this is like opening the most profitable luxury restaurant (Nvidia), and the business is usually hot. But suddenly I heard that the road was going to be built at the door (geopolitical crisis), although your food is still the best, but customers dare not go out (capital hedging), and the cost of buying vegetables and transporting goods is also high (energy costs), so your stock price (valuation) today has to fall first, and wait for the situation to be clear.

3. SpaceX is reported to be considering secretly submitting a US IPO application as soon as March. This is good for all commercial aerospace, and it will also raise the valuation of other commercial aerospace in disguise, but as far as the current market situation is concerned, it is estimated that the outlet is still concentrated in the war-related sector, and this is not a secret, it is expected.
4. Finally, at the end of the month, ask for a manuscript fee, 1 yuan is also support, I wish you a long rainbow in the stock market!