March 1, 2026 Weekend Review: Don't panic, ask yourself!

The hottest topic this weekend is the conflict between the Americans and Iran. After going in circles, it has been the main focus from before the New Year to after the New Year! Retail investors have two main thoughts this weekend: one is related to technology, which coincides with the overnight decline of the US stock market, causing panic! First, it’s important to know that in previous trading sessions, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng had already broken their support levels, but optical communications remained relatively strong. As for CPO performance, unless someone is holding long-term without selling, most people probably won’t be interested. Recently, the tech sector’s rally mainly involves optical communications and PCBs, which dominate the market. Shenghong Technology was affected by external influences on Friday, and Nvidia dropped over 4 points overnight. Combined with external news, a sharp decline is normal. However, in past sessions, there was often a rebound because the news was already known. Regarding computing power, funds attacked on Friday without being affected by the US market decline, but after two days of continuous rise, a correction is normal. There’s nothing to worry about; it even provides an opportunity for core disagreements!

[Taoguba]
The other perspective is within the pro-cyclical sectors. I think these people need to understand a concept: when conflicts erupt, the actual beneficiaries are the US dollar and energy, namely gold, oil, and gas, as well as related shipping and resource sectors. These are driven by inflation and used as hedges, and the hedging premise is at low levels! If at high levels, they lose their hedging properties. Under this premise, evaluate which sectors—oil, shipping, steel, coal, precious metals, small metals, industrial metals, chemicals, rare earth magnets, lithium batteries—are resources or energy, which are at high or low levels. It’s clear at a glance. First, select sectors, then individual stocks!

Last week, during the first four days of the new year, I believe the biggest takeaway isn’t how many opportunities were seized, but how we defined the market during these days. This isn’t our first year in this market. Every year at the start, I say the same: observe for three days, identify the style, and confirm the main players’ tactics for the year. That’s how we define the market! The current main strategy of the market is ultra-short-term trading, so technical analysis suffices. Add one rule: under this rule, use technicals to evaluate the entire market! Why? Because the current main players don’t follow logic. For example, Dream 2.0—everyone knows it’s overexpected, but they still don’t push it up; instead, they do A-sharp kills, like Chinese Online, Jiecheng Shares. This targeted approach is very obvious. Normally, if it’s in other sectors, it wouldn’t involve such sharp drops, but in AI applications, the main players are very aggressive, indicating they’re trying to make retail investors lose confidence. This process usually involves at least four rounds, until retail investors start doubting everything. The result? Even if prices rebound later, retail investors will panic and sell first!

Another point is that Yunnan Energy Holdings has opened up significantly, reaching the seventh support level. Previously, the suppression was at the fourth level. Last week, short-term traders could make decent profits, especially first-day traders. But this raises a question: should you do it? What’s the best approach in the current market? I asked myself this noon—short-term trading is possible, but what are the consequences of doing it long-term? How to find a safe distance between the two? The answer is to strike quickly and exit.

Most retail investors lack short-term trading experience. I’ve been in this market for a long time and no longer trade short-term easily. Last week, I played around with some stocks like Guangming地产, Huayin Electric Power, Dongfang Electric, Huasheng Tiancheng, Tuowei Information—all midstream trades. Huayin Electric Power made a profit, but I gave it to Guangming地产. Dongfang Electric didn’t make much. The next day, there was little premium. I’m still in midstream trades. I understand Guangming地产’s failure—its pattern isn’t within the usual model. The others, like Dongfang Electric, are small plays with little meaning. The key is speed—very fast! If you’re not using a trading keyboard and operating on your phone, it’s hard. That’s my honest feeling. So I usually don’t recommend my followers do ultra-short-term trades. Why? Because in the current market environment (as long as volume exists), small retail traders have no advantage. The only option is to control your drawdown and focus on longer-term gains. There’s no need to compete fiercely! Why do big funds rarely do short-term trading in the end? Because they’re large and find it more complicated to enter and exit. One mistake or impulsive move can ruin half a lifetime! So if you really want to do it, you can, but only when the environment is still good—take a bite and run. I think anyone trying to eat from start to finish is mistaken. Just focus on first and consecutive limit-ups. The market style can change at any time! Staying cautious of risks is the best approach.

The market’s style has changed significantly this year. On the first day, it was about AI application realization, like Daily Interactive. Then chemical stocks surged sharply, which is different from usual styles. Later, CPO declined, PCB rose—like a jump of over a month, then two days back to the original position, driven by randomness and story-telling. First, realize pre-holiday stocks, then immediately find targets—main players’ plans are long-set. Last week, the market mostly watched the Shanghai Composite perform, with institutions focusing on small metals and themes on electricity. On Friday, Yunnan Energy Holdings broke out of abnormal suppression, and small metals reached a climax. External news also stimulated the market. On Monday, these resource stocks at high levels should be observed. The standard for judgment is just to adjust; we don’t need to decide whether to buy, only assess risk-reward. Is it suitable to buy stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten or Jiangwu Equipment? Always watch for style shifts—many cases of “left foot stepping on right foot” last year!

In energy sectors, remember one thing: the market has not been inactive. Retail investors are often led by the nose. Since the start of the year, sectors like chemicals, small metals, oil & gas, and shipping have surged. These stocks adjusted for three days previously. Stronger ones like Intercontinental Oil & Gas and COSCO Shipping used sideways consolidation instead of deep correction. The middle ground reference is China National Petroleum. Also, military industry moves, and when military stocks move, commercial aerospace tends to follow. Our focus shouldn’t be impulsive at open or panic. Some think it’s an opportunity and chase now, but these are in pro-cyclicals like resource, energy, and shipping—none of which are classified properly. Which sectors are truly benefiting? What are the expectations? During trading, how to respond? No plan! The normal approach is to watch the energy vs. tech tug-of-war.

Looking back at Friday’s market, many ask what to watch. It’s about your review and some key levels. First, observe Yunnan Energy Holdings, which broke the five-support level yesterday—can it advance to seven today? It showed weak-to-strong bidding during auction, with funds controlling it. The full ladder is intact. If it’s just a lone wolf, it’s unlikely to succeed. Gannan Energy exceeded expectations during auction, and Yunnan Energy Holdings didn’t fall behind. Then, it reversed from a low position, indicating large funds anticipated weekend news. If you don’t believe it, check Wando Petroleum at 10:22 and why pork was pushed earlier—big power plays, timing can be deduced. On Monday, Wando Petroleum is likely to be a one-word expectation. Not a one-word expectation, but a strong one. Energy and precious metals are relatively strong, especially energy. Small metals’ expectations are overextended.

At 10:30, Fenghuo Communication surged to limit, in optical communications. After FiberHome’s tenfold rise, the market kept changing. The past two days, Zhongtian Technology and Hengtong Optoelectronics were dominant. Nvidia’s first shock was absorbed; the second? Nvidia dropped again Friday night, and external environment isn’t optimistic.

At 10:41, Jinkai New Energy surged to limit. Hangang Shares also had a high opening, with funds still supporting power stocks. At this point, the computing power sector is somewhat overwhelmed. The market volume shrank, but after Tianhong Electronics and Gaoxin Development hit limit, the computing sector peaked. Capital started to retreat, and Capital Online didn’t hit the board. Then, computing power began to decline.

After the market opened in the afternoon, Wolder directly hit the limit, with a 10 billion free float—only three minutes to reach the limit, two of which were at the end! Cultivated diamonds and Yellow River Whirlwind stocks were also pulled up unexpectedly. Even now, it’s after the fact. During the early afternoon, no one knew.

At 13:03, Jiayi New Energy surged to limit, in power sector. It’s similar to Xinjin Power. By this time, the focus shifted to pro-cyclicals. Morning declines mostly involved aerospace stocks, which lacked support from big funds. It’s too early to pull strongly.

At 13:09, Mindong Electric Power surged to limit, with a warning issued just seconds before. Then, Dulong Huilong and Shui Fa Gas followed. If no one knew about weekend events in advance, it’s hard to believe!

In the afternoon, precious metals like Hunan Gold surged, reflecting a reversal of pro-cyclicals. Chemical stocks also showed some rebound, but these are passive rebounds, lacking initiative.

In summary, the intraday market shows that funds have long been preparing for weekend conflicts between Iran and the US, even earlier—just look at COSCO Shipping, which hit the daily limit before the holiday. Many were still speculating on other things. Now, the question is: when will they cash out, and under what circumstances? I believe it’s during emotional peaks. So, on Monday, these stocks might still push higher, especially if a resource sector supports energy.

In the first four days of the new year, the market’s high was unlocked. Many are eager, but remember, the year has just begun. My view differs from others: while most celebrate Yunnan Energy Holdings’ rise, I think it’s wise to be cautious. Many times, the market’s high is set by institutions, which then sell off. As I mentioned in the live broadcast, whenever the market’s high is reached, institutions tend to push down. Sure enough, Zhongji Xuchuang and others started to decline. This tug-of-war between institutions and themes was discussed in early January—perhaps a video was even clipped on Taoguba. Those who forget can review it!

For next week, first observe how much the Monday event’s impact unfolds. One sentence: know where not to go, even if you don’t know where to go! Then, consider what retail investors are thinking now—greedy ones are eyeing oil & gas on Monday; fearful ones are thinking about cutting losses. But put yourself in institutions’ shoes: what are they thinking? Or, what will they do on Monday? Where is the expectation gap? The market has experienced countless times that main players don’t follow logic! If unsure, and your holdings are not at high levels, wait longer. When fear overcomes reason, just do the opposite of what others do!

To strengthen your confidence, ask yourself on a quiet weekend night: can the Iran-US conflict be resolved quickly? If it’s truly resolved, will it settle down? What are their goals? Gold prices are pushed high, but they must eventually settle. Will things spiral out of control? If pro-cyclicals keep hype, what can still be played? Will these last all year? It’s just the beginning of the year. If not, what will come next? Who was Zhongyi Da last year? Who was Yi Zhongtian?

Thanks to everyone who liked, tipped, and supported me in pursuing my goals, allowing me to stay calm and improve further. Sharing knowledge is valuable. I will continue to share more valuable content. Thanks for your support! Wishing everyone a smooth year ahead!

Special thanks to those who tipped: (Top supporter: @Cangdong Zuoshou, @JinFangZhi) and others.

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