Decoding the Market Bottom Code: How CB Buyers Build Bear Market Bottom Consensus

What is a CB buyer? Simply put, they are the most clear-headed decision-makers in the market and the true builders of the bear market bottom. Rather than saying CBs are buying at the bottom, it’s more accurate to say that the bottom is often created by their purchases. Currently, BTC is around $64.46K, but these steadfast long-term participants are showing the market with their actions that the true bear market bottom is not far off.

Signs of Supply Side Decline: LTH Spending Accelerates

First, we need to observe changes on the Bitcoin supply side. Long-term holders (LTH) are a key group determining supply dynamics; they have already spent over 5 million BTC in this cycle. What does this data mean? Large-scale spending by long-term holders typically signals a gradual weakening of the supply-side dominance.

When the supply side begins to loosen its grip, it indicates that the excess supply remaining in the market is gradually decreasing. This trend suggests that the pressure from the supply side will only weaken further over time. This is the first important signal indicating that the “bottom of the bear market” is approaching.

Three Levels of Demand: Who Is Truly Buying the Bottom

Changes on the demand side are equally critical. Market participants can be divided into three categories, each playing different roles:

1. First Buyers (FB): The Market’s Fresh Blood
They mainly enter when risk appetite increases, injecting new capital into the market. Currently, this group is still relatively weak because macroeconomic conditions have not yet significantly boosted investors’ risk appetite.

2. Momentum Buyers (MB): Emotional Catalysts
In a bear market, this type of trend-chasing buyer is almost nonexistent. They only emerge when the market starts rising, further accelerating the upward trend.

3. Faith Buyers (CB): The Market’s Most Steadfast Force
This is the most critical group. CB buyers do not wait for the perfect bottom nor try to go all-in at the lowest point. They only buy when they see enough value. In other words, as long as the price is low enough and risks are manageable, they will continuously absorb all excess supply in the market.

The True Identity of CBs: The Market’s Most Intelligent Long-Termists

What are CBs? They are participants with a deep understanding of market cycles, often buying during downturns and selling during rallies. Their logic is simple: with patience spanning months or even years, they wait for the optimal cost basis and then accumulate gradually.

According to on-chain data, as of February this year, CBs’ total holdings have reached nearly 3.5 million BTC, again setting a new cycle high. Even more striking, in just the two months since January, CBs have significantly increased their holdings by 1.22 million BTC.

This scale of accumulation has far exceeded many key historical points—such as the May 19 event, the LUNA crash, and the FTX collapse—all when BTC prices were below current levels. This indicates that CBs are adding more at higher prices, deploying larger amounts of capital. The only conclusion is that the smartest decision-makers in the market are voting with real money, expressing confidence that the bear market bottom is near.

The Bottom Threshold Has Appeared; Time Lag Still Exists

Understanding the “bottom” involves two dimensions: space and time.

Taking the last cycle as an example, BTC bottomed at $17,000 in June 2022, just slightly above the absolute bottom of $15,000. This shows that, in terms of space, the market has entered the “bear bottom” zone. However, the process of fully rebuilding consensus and completing the bottom took a full 7 months, during which black swan events like the FTX collapse occurred.

Currently, from a spatial perspective, the decline in supply and the continuous accumulation by CBs both point to the bottom threshold having appeared. But from a temporal perspective, completing consensus rebuilding and emerging into a new trend still requires months of consolidation and brewing.

Supply-Demand Balance as the Bottom: The Start of Consensus Rebuilding

When the supply side’s strength truly reaches its limit and CBs on the demand side have absorbed most of the excess supply through continuous buying, a new balance will be achieved. This balance point is the real bottom zone of the bear market.

Afterward, the market needs several months of consensus rebuilding to gradually lay the foundation for breaking into a new trend. Currently, CBs have demonstrated enough conviction and strength, fully aligning with the standard that “the bear bottom is not far.” Those willing to wait will, in time, see all this validated.