Buy signal behind institutional accumulation and retail panic over the past 30 days

Over the past 30 days, the crypto market has staged a “drama” between institutions and retail investors. Major institutions have accumulated a total of 200,000 BTC, while BlackRock just deposited another 2,563 BTC into Coinbase, worth $172 million. Meanwhile, a large holder claiming to be a “Trump insider” and marked as “1011 Whales” transferred 22,600 BTC, valued at $750 million, to exchanges. This stark contrast reveals the most authentic reflection of market cycles.

Large Institutions Accumulate 2 Million BTC in 30 Days, BlackRock Continues Buying—What Signal Are They Sending?

Institutional activity over the past 30 days is particularly noteworthy. Leading asset managers like BlackRock are actively positioning themselves; their continuous accumulation is not a one-time move but a systematic strategy. When institutions keep voting with real money, it usually indicates optimism about the medium-term trend.

In contrast, large holders’ selling behavior seems contradictory. But this is the market’s fascinating dynamic—institutions are buying, while short-term profit-takers are selling. Smart money continues to buy near $67,000, while panicked retail investors rush to exit around $68,000. This opposition often signals the brewing of a new upward wave.

Technical Indicators Confirm Uptrend, Multiple Metrics Signal Bullishness

From a technical perspective, the signals are quite clear. The 7-week EMA has crossed above the 25-week EMA, and the MACD shows a golden cross—classic bullish signals. The key support level remains steady at $67,000. If this level holds, the target is directly at $70,000.

Currently, BTC is oscillating around $64,900, having pulled back from recent highs. This correction is significant for confirming support. Every dip to this level is an opportunity to test its strength. If $67,000 can hold, the previous consolidation was just a buildup for upward momentum.

Retail Investors Desperate for New Highs, Repeating Historical Buy Patterns

The most intriguing data point is the surge in searches for “Bitcoin zeroing out,” reaching a record high. This phenomenon occurred in May 2021 and November 2022, each time turning out to be an optimal buy point in hindsight. History repeats, but people tend to overlook these patterns.

When retail investors reach despair, it often marks the start of smart money’s action. When most give up hope at the bottom, the few who hold on are the true sources of future gains. This psychological contrast is a key driver of market cycles.

Macro Uncertainty Under Stagflation Shadow

But optimism must be tempered with risk awareness. US GDP growth is only 1.4%, while inflation remains high at 2.9%, indicating persistent stagflation signs. In this macro environment, the Fed faces a dilemma—raising rates could slow the economy further, while not raising could fail to control inflation. Any policy tilt might trigger volatile market reactions.

Although the past 30 days show continued institutional accumulation, macro uncertainties still hang over the market like a sword. A black swan event could trigger a sharp crash. Risks and opportunities coexist, and recognizing this is crucial for trading decisions.

Short-term Trading Strategy: Light Positioning at $67,000 Support Zone

For short-term traders, the past 30 days provide clear directional clues. Focus closely on the strong support zone between $67,013.5 and $67,247.5. If prices hold this range, consider light long positions with an initial target at $68,887.5 and a stop-loss below $66,800.

If the price breaks above $69,000—a key resistance—consider adding to longs, aiming for $70,000. But remember, the past month has shown that reversals are common. Every trade should have a stop-loss, and position sizing must be cautious. Data supports optimism, but vigilance is always necessary.