National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center: Storage chip prices continue to rise and are transmitted downstream

Cailian Press APP learned that on February 28, the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center issued a statement stating that since September 2025, due to factors such as explosive demand growth and cliff-like capacity shortages, the global memory market gap has widened, and memory chip prices have continued to rise. Over the past month, the increase has accelerated, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of memory chip prices on downstream prices.

1. Recent Sharp and Rapid Increase in Memory Chip Prices

Research shows that as of January this year, the prices of the two main memory products, DRAM and NAND flash, reached their highest levels since 2016. For example, the mainstream model, DDR4 8Gb (1G8), had an average contract price of $11.50 in January, up about 24% from the previous month and approximately 83% from September 2025; NAND flash (128Gb 16G8 MLC) had an average contract price of $9.50, up about 65% from the previous month and nearly 1.5 times higher than September 2025.

The main reasons for the price increase include explosive demand growth, cliff-like capacity shortages, and panic stockpiling by downstream industries. First, the growth in AI computing power has driven increased demand for high-end storage. TrendForce estimates that global AI server shipments will grow over 28% year-on-year in 2026, with memory requirements per AI server reaching about 8 times that of traditional servers. The demand for high-bandwidth, large-capacity memory chips in AI servers and data centers will see explosive growth. Additionally, since Q4 2025, new models of smartphones and other electronic products have been launched in large numbers, supporting consumer-grade storage demand. Second, the production strategies of storage giants combined with rigid capacity cycle constraints have worsened market supply tightness. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron monopolize over 90% of global DRAM capacity. Leading manufacturers adopt strategies like “reducing production to maintain prices” and “discarding low-margin products to chase high margins,” shifting over 80% of advanced capacity to high-margin, high-bandwidth memory, and reducing mature process capacity, leading to shortages in consumer-grade storage chips. Moreover, capacity expansion cycles are long; wafer plant construction takes 1.5 to 2 years, and new capacity cannot be released in the short term. Third, rising prices of raw materials such as silicon wafers, tungsten hexafluoride, and metals provide some cost support. In 2025, the prices of 12-inch silicon wafers, tungsten hexafluoride, silver, and copper increased to varying degrees. Additionally, market bullish sentiment and panic stockpiling by downstream sectors like consumer electronics, AI server manufacturers, and smart vehicles have further driven recent price increases.

2. Memory Chip Price Rise Will Transmit to Downstream Sectors

Currently, memory chips are in an upward cycle. Throughout the year, driven by continuous growth in AI server computing power demand, the global memory market will remain in short supply, and prices are expected to continue rising. The increase in memory chip prices is gradually transmitting to consumer electronics end products. As AI application penetration deepens, consumer preferences for high-end and intelligent electronic products are strengthening, with a clear trend of consumption upgrading and higher memory performance requirements. Manufacturers have limited room to ease cost pressures through component downgrades, and raising end-product prices will become a common trend. Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo, Dell, and HP have already issued price adjustment notices, with increases generally between 500 and 1500 yuan. Similarly, new domestic models from Xiaomi, Vivo, and others with the same storage configurations have seen prices rise by 300 to 500 yuan compared to previous generations.

Due to the rise in memory chip prices and their transmission downstream, PPI (Producer Price Index) for sectors such as computers, communications, and other electronic equipment is expected to stabilize after declines, reducing the drag on the PPI. Regarding CPI (Consumer Price Index), the continued effects of policies aimed at boosting consumption are evident, and prices in the communication tools sector are expected to continue rising.

This article is compiled from the “Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission.” Edited by Wang Qiujia for Cailian Finance.