How much farther is the Bitcoin bear market bottom? Analyzing the battle between bullish and bearish forces through Zhang Wuji's martial arts confrontation

In traditional martial arts combat, pure offensive skills often cannot match the wisdom of defense. Although Zhang Wuji mastered the Nine Yang True Scripture and the Great Shift of the Universe, he was still injured in his first encounter. Later, under the enlightenment of the Tai Chi Mind Method, he learned the supreme realm of using softness to overcome hardness, enabling him to handle subsequent battles with ease. This ancient martial principle seems to be replaying itself in the bullish and bearish struggles of the Bitcoin market.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $63.55K. The market participation structure has undergone a qualitative change—new players such as ETFs, traditional capital, and national strategic reserves have entered the scene. Bulls once believed that these “divine defenses” would be enough to resist the bears’ counterattack, but reality has given us a heavy reminder: the bears’ strength has been seriously underestimated.

Large investors’ distribution pressure and silent new capital absorption

The distribution actions of long-term holders (LTH) have already revealed the true strength comparison between bulls and bears. According to on-chain data, since mid-2025, long-term holders have sold over 5 million BTC, accounting for a quarter of the circulating supply. This figure is staggering—without concrete data in front of us, it’s hard to imagine such a massive selling pressure.

Interestingly, the net reduction in long-term holders’ positions is much lower than the total amount sold. What does this indicate? The vast majority of the sell-off has been absorbed and held by new buyers, including traditional giants like BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and some unseen hidden funds. Their silent absorption is the strongest support in this bear market.

Bulls’ “Tai Chi Defense” Strategy

Compared to the fierce offensive of the bears, bulls adopt a more rational defensive strategy. They are not rushing to reverse the trend but are layering defenses at key price levels: around $100K, $85K, $67K—each level showing enough demand response. It’s like Zhang Wuji’s later Tai Chi battles, using minimal effort to neutralize the opponent’s attack.

Bulls are absorbing panic liquidity. Whenever the market falls into fear, they seize the opportunity; when momentum wanes, they retreat to the next defensive line. This “soft overcoming hard” approach is gradually draining the bears’ energy.

Signs of the bears’ weakening strength

From the trend of distribution data, the chips that long-term holders are eager to cash out at current prices are gradually decreasing. This is an important signal—the bears’ final surge seems to be waning. While we cannot precisely quantify how much is still eager to escape, the trend change is visibly evident.

The critical point of the bear bottom

In the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the true factor that determines the bottom is often not the price itself, but time. When the last bit of the bears’ momentum is exhausted, and the new demand and absorption capacity are fully demonstrated, the reversal will quietly occur.

From Zhang Wuji’s story, we learn that mastery is not about fierce offense but about wisdom in defense. The bulls in the Bitcoin market are proving this principle with a similar strategy—sometimes, retreat and patience can lead to ultimate victory more than aggressive counterattacks.

At this stage, the distance to the bear bottom is no longer so far. What is truly needed is patience from bulls and market participants.