Iranian gunfire sounds! This niche product loved by Chinese people is expected to see a price increase

Cailian Press, February 28 (Editor: Ma Lan) The United States and Israel have launched attacks on Iran. Israel’s Defense Minister stated that they carried out a “preemptive” strike against Iran to eliminate potential threats. About 30 targets within Iran, including the presidential palace, were attacked.

According to reports, Iranian officials in media interviews said that Iran is preparing for retaliatory actions, which are expected to be devastating.

Previously, analysts predicted that Iran might disrupt the international energy market by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacking neighboring countries’ oil production facilities to expand losses for the U.S. and related countries.

If the conflict escalates rapidly, a niche market could also be severely impacted. Saffron, known as “Red Gold,” might see price increases due to the geopolitical conflict involving Iran, the world’s largest producer.

Consulting firm Global Growth estimates that in 2024, Iran will produce over 80% of the world’s saffron. Another estimate shows that Iran’s saffron production reached about 400 tons in the fiscal year ending last March, far surpassing India, the second-largest producer, with 20 to 25 tons.

Meanwhile, the market size for saffron could grow from $390 million this year to $800 million by 2036, highlighting strong demand.

China Market According to an analysis published in Frontiers in Pharmacology in 2024, saffron can effectively reduce inflammation markers related to asthma. In traditional Chinese medicine, saffron is used to activate blood circulation, remove blood stasis, and calm the mind. It is a core ingredient in proprietary Chinese medicines such as Dan Shen Ding Pian and Xiao Yao Wan.

Beyond medicinal use, saffron has expanded into health supplements, cosmetics, and food products in recent years, leading to continuous price increases.

However, saffron supply is highly concentrated, making Iran a key risk in this market. In 2020, U.S. sanctions on Iran increased, leading to a reduction in saffron exports and a 30% surge in international prices. The current U.S.-Israel joint efforts to target Iran could further disrupt Iran’s saffron exports, posing greater challenges to the international market.

China is also one of the main consumers of saffron. According to research firm FMI, China’s saffron market is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8%. Another report states that from January to September 2023, China imported saffron worth $21.11 million; over 99% of its saffron imports came from Iran.

Currently, China has cultivated saffron in regions like Tibet and Zhejiang, but production cannot meet domestic demand, with imports accounting for over 80% of the market.