[Red Envelope] Using computing power as a boat to carry Tokens overseas (Casual War Edition)

Old rules: claim red envelopes and refuse check-ins. Even if you send a message like “Yuanbao Prosperity,” don’t comment “666” — so stupid; [Taogu Bar]

Keep an eye on the market in real-time, grasp the trends early, and plan your moves to determine wins or losses. Luck is unreliable; gamblers won’t go far.

Use deduction to determine direction, discipline to protect gains. Like and then watch; the stock market profits long-term. Wishing everyone daily success in stocks and continuous prosperity in life!

Note: This article is quite long; please be patient.

1: Market Overview This Week

After the holiday, the market opened for four days. On the first day, funds that had been hiding before the holiday were wiped out, with the leading casualties being plant-based stocks, followed by computing power + AI applications. Quantitative strategies don’t care about logic; as long as there’s volatility, ruthless algorithms will slaughter the hidden funds mercilessly.

On the second day, overseas Feynman industry chains began to ferment, led by Shenghong, with strong institutional inflows. Various PCB sub-sectors moved in batches, while related computing power stocks continued to decline.

On the third day, computing power showed signs of stabilization. Overseas chains like PCB strengthened, reaching intraday highs. Stocks that hit the daily limit-up all did so.

On the fourth day, with external adjustments, institutional directions shifted intraday. In the morning, computing power strengthened and peaked; in the afternoon, it retreated. This reflects institutions’ morning weakness and afternoon rebound.

During these four trading days, the price lines and other factors—resources, real estate, miscellaneous stocks—were also involved. These are risk-avoidance stocks, collectively called the risk-avoidance line.

Summary: Over these four days, quantitative strategies once again demonstrated the dominant position of the big A-shares market through a lively dance of rally and decline.

2: Market on Friday (from my perspective of monitoring the market)

Auction ended with three one-word limit-ups: China Tianying + Geer Software + Taijia Shares, representing green power + quantum technology + Huawei Ascend. But their order books were quite average, so no traditional one-word directional bets. The other stocks in these sectors didn’t perform beyond expectations. Let me say a few more words — many of my students and followers are here, so just consider this as experience sharing.

First, from the perspective of capital flow, the best was the electric power sector. Green power is a sub-sector of electricity. Among these, the first limit-up stocks from yesterday, like Henan Energy, had the biggest premiums, with Henan Energy opening over 5%. It also gave positive feedback at the Friday timing node, which is expected. From a bidding perspective, stocks like Huayin + Kerei + Shenma, and Gannan Energy in the second tier, all showed readiness to assist at any time. As a short-term trader, you only have two choices: pick the top or the bottom. Just go for the top or bottom, because you don’t know if regulators will give negative feedback on Henan Energy over the weekend. So, just abandon the mid-cap stocks for now.

As for Geer, from conceptual understanding, there are two views: one is the traditional quantum tech, and the other is its Huawei attribute. So, at the open, check if there’s any movement in quantum stocks. If none, skip this concept. Choose the latter, grouping it with Taijia as Huawei-related. The final step is to observe the core attitude of Huasheng after opening.

There are two other stocks that are easy to understand: Fale + Jinzheng + Chengxing. Fale, no need to say — everyone knows what it means. The latter two are the risk-avoidance stocks, with Jinzheng stronger than Chengxing.

That’s the auction thinking.

After opening, Jinzheng and Henan Energy both hit the limit at 9:31. But Kangxi, young and vigorous, can Yongzheng have a chance? If Kangxi doesn’t perform well, even if you remove the Eight Princes, your chances are slim, right? Moreover, Henan Energy is also a computing power stock, with its guards Suoertuo and Zhang Wuge, Huasheng and Tuowei, opening higher. Today’s computing power inflow is just textbook.

At this point, it’s a matter of late realization. It turns out Kangxi dispersed computing power in the morning, but everyone knew how much quantitative funds were involved. As Wangsu approached midday, it plunged, and intra-day computing power shifted from peak to divergence. In the afternoon, funds increased their holdings in power stocks like Min Dong and Nanjing Power, which also went up in the afternoon. So, in detail, computing power’s half-time performance was very strong, but the entire session was dominated by power stocks. The underlying logic is simple: quantitative funds had already allocated capital in the morning, and their algorithms are set to work in the morning and relax in the afternoon. You’ve noticed that many times recently, the volume in the morning is high, but it tapers off in the afternoon. The same applies here.

From a short-term perspective, the anchor for computing power is simple: Henan Energy continues to break out, and Huasheng provides a rebound.

Additional perspectives: After external influences, AI hardware stocks collectively declined. Today’s rebound depends on core stocks like Tianfu Communication, which was repeatedly bid up in the morning; after Huasheng’s rebound was no longer feasible in the afternoon, PCB stocks like Shenghong, which was pulled up from below the moving averages, became active. Stocks like Feilihua and Dongcai Technology, which are upstream in CCL, were the most active, reflecting quantitative behavior.

3: Quantitative Behavior Analysis

Since yesterday’s “Yuanbao Pre-market” thinking, I find the current quantitative models very strange. Yesterday morning, three options were given: Red Bao, Runtu, and Baichuan. From Thursday’s perspective, considering chemical sector divergence, these three are among the more resilient stocks. Based on chips, Baichuan was the best, Runtu the worst. Last year, in my model, Baichuan was a must-hold at the end of the day, as it could be seen as the December 23 aerospace development.

But this morning, Baichuan dropped sharply, and the worst Runtu defied expectations. When you think Baichuan might be the last rally of a strong stock, with a buy point at the close, the quant model preempts your judgment, pulling it up during the session, while Runtu falls back. It’s really tricky. Human nature and volatility—can you beat them? They don’t recognize your logic; as long as there’s volatility, large-cap stocks like Honghe and Keji are affected. Quantitative strategies love this—they only care about space, not logic.

Yesterday, I also considered grabbing aerospace stocks early, with my personal candidate being Zaisheng. I didn’t do it in the end, but I’ll share the logic for your consideration.

The logic is: if aerospace is categorized as an emotional theme, then these stocks have been relatively lagging in recent days. There’s a rotation expected on Monday. But looking further, Henan Energy has already peaked in abnormal movement. Since yesterday is Friday, I don’t know if the market will take a big hit over the weekend. If Henan Energy collapses, it will impact the emotional theme, and aerospace stocks might not rotate either. So, I skipped it.

Another negative phenomenon in the overall market is that the rotation sectors have increased. For example, yesterday afternoon, securities stocks moved, and in the late session, education stocks also rose. With volume shrinking throughout the day, everyone wants a piece of the pie. This reduces sector continuity. The positive side is that quantitative strategies are still active, and the timing for a main rally in themes has not yet arrived.

For retail investors, it’s impossible to buy all stocks in the rotating sectors with limited capital. So, just stick to one direction for swing trading. When the market shows collective strength, then go all-in. Be patient and develop slowly—that’s why I reduced my position in the afternoon.

Another way to look at it: many thematic subdivisions with medium-term logic exist, but market capital is limited. With less than 2.5 trillion in total turnover, it’s hard to support many sectors. Quantitative strategies occupy a large part of this, so the market shows rotation rather than multiple simultaneous breakthroughs.

My personal understanding of ultra-short-term trading is that Henan Energy’s breaking 7 is a pioneer in chaotic markets, trying to open the upside for future speculation. For example, last year, Daqing Energy moved to 8 without much fuss, then started a big cycle in Pingtan and He Fu in Fujian.

Writing here, I realize the market is already fighting. It’s frustrating, but the overall perspective remains unchanged. Everyone, please support me with likes and tips.

Thanks to 13 market funds for their strong support, making this post a quality piece. @TaoYun007@AdrianSouth@YaoZiXiBaby@javxsp@BuYanBuYu@GHX0228@ShunShiWeiWang1986@BaiGeWangZz@JiaYouLaolK@ChenYouDi@MoDuo@ThisBattleIsFamous@MaiFeiWangLaoTou

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Thanks everyone for your support and love. Your appreciation is the highest recognition of my value output! Those with money, support the scene; those without, support individuals. A few bucks won’t make you poor, and a few hundred or thousand won’t make me rich. But if my posts gain popularity, I’ll have more confidence. Mutual achievement. I find the PUA tactics disgusting; I believe many of you are tired of workplace PUA. Let’s keep it happy and relaxed.

Who understands? I’ve been writing this post since 1 PM, and now it’s turned into a battle??