The Final Battle of the Martial World: How Much Longer Is the BTC Bear Market Bottom?

In Jin Yong’s martial arts world, Zhang Wuji, despite mastering the Nine Yang True Skill and the Great Shift of the Universe, was severely injured in his first confrontation with the Xuanming Elders. Later, after learning Tai Chi principles from Zhang Sanfeng, he achieved the highest realm of soft overcoming hard, which allowed him to turn the tide in the second battle. This progression of martial arts combat mirrors the current battle between bulls and bears in the BTC market—seemingly dominated by the bears, but in reality, the bulls are gradually gaining control of the rhythm.

Distribution and Accumulation: The Prolonged Battle of Bulls and Bears

In this downward trend, long-term holders (LTH) and bears have engaged in a prolonged game of chips. Data shows that starting mid-2025, LTH launched an epic distribution campaign. By that time, they had sold a total of 5.095 million BTC, accounting for a quarter of the circulating supply, enough to shake the entire market.

Many might think that the bears are unstoppable upon seeing this data. But the reality is much more complex—although LTH sold over 5 million BTC, their net holdings only decreased by 417,000 BTC. What does this mean? It indicates that 4.78 million BTC were picked up by new buyers and re-held as new LTH.

Who are these new buyers? They include traditional giants like BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and many large institutional investors unknown to us. This is a fundamental difference in this cycle compared to previous ones—the participant structure has undergone a qualitative change.

Deeper Meaning of Chip Flows: The Replacement of Old and New Holders

This process is essentially a ritual of chip transfer. When panic selling occurs, original long-term holders release chips to realize profits. But the key is that these chips are not fully absorbed by the market; instead, they are taken over one by one by more capable and patient new participants.

At each price point—$100,000, $85,000, $67,000—there has been strong buying demand. This is not a victory for the bears, but a tactical shift by the bulls—they are no longer rushing to push prices higher, but instead setting layers of defenses, gradually absorbing chips, and using time to build momentum. Like the subtlety of Tai Chi, it’s not about brute force but about leveraging strength and yielding power, using finesse rather than confrontation.

Time and Patience: The True Test of the Bottom

The key question now is: how many of the chips held by LTH are eager to cash out near $60,000? From the data trend, the selling pressure from distribution is beginning to weaken. This is a crucial signal—it indicates that the final wave of bear power is waning.

Some believe BTC has already bottomed out, but a more accurate view is that the bear market is not a single point but a process. The true bottom depends on the bears exhausting their last selling momentum and new capital flowing in to fully absorb this supply pressure.

Based on current on-chain data and institutional behavior, this moment is not far off. BTC is currently trading around $65,000, significantly below its all-time high. If distribution pressure continues to weaken and new buyers keep absorbing supply strongly, the bear market bottom may be closer than we think.

However, this presupposes that bulls need enough time—not just for price to rise, but for the bears to lose their fighting spirit and new participants to fully gain confidence. The final outcome of this round will ultimately be decided by time. Like a top-tier martial arts duel, the winner is not necessarily the one with the most exquisite skills, but the one who masters the rhythm and sees through the opponent’s weaknesses first.

The arrival of the bear market bottom is not a loud explosion but the silent fading of bear power. And we are currently experiencing this process.