When will the bear market arrive? The balance of bullish and bearish forces reveals clues

In this ongoing downtrend cycle, the market is witnessing an unprecedented battle between bulls and bears. Like the confrontation between Zhang Wuji and the Xuanming Elders in Jin Yong’s novels, on the surface, the bulls hold numerous “divine skills”—from traditional capital giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy, to national strategic reserves, and continuous inflows of ETF funds—seemingly invincible. However, market reality constantly reminds us: the bears’ strength far exceeds expectations, and the outcome of this battle is not predetermined.

Currently, the Bitcoin market exhibits clear bearish characteristics, but every time it hits a critical level, new buying interest emerges. This is what makes this cycle most unusual—the participant structure has undergone a fundamental change.

New Capital Absorption: Bullish Signals Hidden in the Bear Market

Data reveals the truth. According to on-chain analysis, a new wave of buyers has shown strong accumulation at key price levels. When long-term holders (LTH) are selling off large amounts, these new buyers are not short-term arbitrageurs but institutional players re-entering as long-term holders.

Who are they? Of course, they include traditional capital giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy, as well as some lesser-known hidden powerhouses in the market. This reflects a key phenomenon: as long as the price offers enough value, genuine demand will continuously emerge—even in deep bear markets. In the context of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply of about 19.995 million coins, the inflow and outflow of these funds are especially noteworthy.

Behind the Distribution of 5.095 Million BTC: The True Dilemma of LTH

The most shocking data comes from the selling behavior of long-term holders. Since a certain point in time, LTHs have launched an unprecedented distribution campaign, releasing a total of 5.095 million BTC—accounting for a quarter of the circulating supply. This number is enough to change anyone’s perception of the market—bulls are facing enormous pressure from within their own camp.

But even more interesting is the actual net position change. The net reduction in holdings by LTHs is only about 417,000 BTC, meaning that nearly 4.78 million coins have been fully absorbed by new buyers and transitioned into new long-term holders. This ratio itself tells a story: the resilience of the bulls in the bear market far exceeds expectations.

Layered Defense Tactics: How Bulls Consume Bearish Momentum

Faced with the “extremely cold” internal assault of the bears, the bulls adopt a “soft resistance” strategy—using patience and attrition. They are not rushing to reverse the trend but are defending at each critical support level.

Reviewing the price movements, strong demand has appeared around $100,000, $85,000, and the current around $67,000. The bulls’ strategy is clear and steadfast: defend while retreating, layer by layer, using time to wear down the bears’ momentum. If this defense line is broken, they will retreat to the next zone, remaining unmoved by the temptation of a quick rebound.

This patient defense fundamentally reflects the bulls’ confidence in the long-term outlook—they know they are playing a game of patience.

Early Signs of a Bottom: How Far Are We From It?

The most critical question now is: how far is the bottom?

From the trend of distribution data, the selling pressure from LTHs has begun to weaken gradually. When a previously aggressive distributor starts to slow down, it often indicates that the chips are becoming scarcer rather than easier to acquire. After selling over 5 million coins, how many of LTHs’ remaining holdings are eager to cash out at around $60,000? We cannot know precisely, but the trend already points to a conclusion.

The emergence of a market bottom may not depend on how low the price falls but on the exhaustion of the bears’ strength. When the bears gradually lose control through repeated distribution and absorption cycles, when new funds keep entering, and when the defense lines retreat but are never truly broken—at that moment, bulls are ready to turn the tide.

And the most crucial factor for this moment is time. During the bear market’s wear and tear, the bulls are quietly accumulating the power for a reversal.