Bank of China Futures: The rebound potential of synthetic rubber is limited by supply-side pressure

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-28T03:40:18+00:00

As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply and demand of natural rubber face seasonal decline, and futures prices fluctuate with the market. Domestic tire factories are operating at lower capacities, and the processing profit of the styrene-butadiene rubber industry has improved, leading to an increase in domestic production. BR is supported by costs, but supply constraints limit its rebound potential.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-28 03:40:18

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Chinese New Year is approaching, and both supply and demand for natural rubber are experiencing seasonal marginal declines. Futures prices follow fluctuations in commodity futures market liquidity. On the supply side, domestic production areas have halted tapping, while northern Thailand is gradually reducing production. Southern Thailand is in the peak tapping season for 2025–2026, but the low-yield period is approaching, leading to neutral to slightly strong raw material prices. On the demand side, as the Chinese New Year nears, downstream tire factories in China are gradually shutting down for holidays. According to Zhuochuang Information, this week, the operating load of fully steel radial tires in Shandong tire companies was 60.94%, down 1.47 percentage points from last week but up 40.93 percentage points year-on-year (due to the lunar New Year mismatch); monitoring shows that the operating load of semi-steel tires in domestic tire companies was 73.42%, down 1.93 percentage points from last week and up 44.41 percentage points year-on-year.

After the processing profit of the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industry turned negative, it experienced two weeks of reduced production, but this week, operating levels stabilized and rebounded. Raw material profits improved, leading to increased domestic production. BR prices are supported by cost factors below, but the rebound space is limited by supply-side pressures. (Bank of China Futures)

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