The outcome of the US-Iran negotiations remains uncertain, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia increasing crude oil exports.

Caixin February 28 News (Editor: Ma Lan) The tense situation between the U.S. and Iran continues to rattle global markets. Negotiations in Geneva this week between the U.S. and Iran saw little progress, and the 10 to 15-day deadline previously threatened by U.S. President Trump is about to expire.

In recent weeks, the U.S. has assembled a large military presence in the Middle East, and Trump may launch an attack on Iran at any time. If Iran enters a conflict, it is likely to cut off the Strait of Hormuz supply and attack nearby oil production facilities in retaliation for U.S. actions, which would significantly disrupt the stability of global oil supplies.

Two trade sources said on Friday that UAE oil producers plan to export more of their flagship crude, Murban, in April. This further indicates that, as concerns grow that any U.S. attack on Iran could disrupt regional oil supplies, major Middle Eastern exporters are increasing their output.

Analysts say that fears of conflict disrupting Middle Eastern oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up geopolitical risk premiums, driving oil prices higher. Last Friday, oil prices hit $73 per barrel, the highest since July last year.

As of press time, Brent crude futures were at $72.87 per barrel, and WTI crude was at $67.02 per barrel, both rising this week, reflecting market pessimism about the Iran situation.

Buffer Scott Shelton, an analyst at TP ICAP, said that increased oil exports from Gulf countries will likely buffer any short-term disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and any shipping companies choosing to avoid the region.

Sources said that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), a state-owned enterprise in the UAE, has offered additional oil supplies to its onshore concession partners, but it is unclear how much more Murban oil will be produced. Currently, the company’s daily output is 2 million barrels.

ADNOC’s partners include BP, Total, China National Petroleum Corporation, Zhenhua Oil, and South Korea’s GS Energy. Another insider said that in May, ADNOC will shut down two onshore oil fields for maintenance, which will affect export supplies.

Saudi Arabia has also expanded energy exports. As OPEC’s largest oil producer, it has begun implementing contingency plans to address potential oil supply disruptions caused by U.S. strikes on Iran.

Last June, amid U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Saudi Arabia increased oil exports by about 500,000 barrels per day and shipped more crude to overseas storage facilities. Two sources told media that this year’s plans are similar to last year.

Key members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will hold a meeting on Sunday. OPEC+ sources said this week that after pausing first-quarter production increases, the group may consider a small increase of 137,000 barrels per day in April.