Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Post-Holiday Spring Market Expected to Continue; Technology and Resources are the Core Allocation Themes

CITIC Securities: Spring Market Post-Holiday Expected to Continue

This February marks a significant turning point. The leap in AI coding capabilities has officially pushed the global effective code volume into an exponential growth phase. Under current physical AI technology conditions, the expansion rate of society’s tangible production value and total income lags far behind the growth of AI-generated code. The world is likely to first experience a period of code volume expansion, excess execution capacity, intensified competition, and declining capital return rates.

Based on industry dependence on physical assets and regulatory/emotional barriers, industries can be divided into four categories: Damaged (low physical dependence, low barriers), Reshaped (low dependence, high barriers), Fortress (high dependence, high barriers), and Beneficial (high physical dependence, low barriers). In the near future, the gap in returns between beneficiaries of physical asset scarcity and those harmed by code expansion may continue to widen, and this divergence trend will persist. This is a new factor that must be considered when analyzing market trends and sector allocation.

From a short-term market perspective, the A-share industry landscape is dominated by manufacturing and finance. Under the current AI impact, the influence on these sectors is relatively smaller compared to US and Hong Kong markets. Capital inflows and investor optimism remain unchanged. The spring market after the holiday is expected to continue, with price increases remaining one of the key investment clues for Q1.

CITIC Securities Construction Investment: A-shares Likely to Enter a New Uptrend

During the Spring Festival, global stock markets performed strongly with no major risk events. Market sentiment remains high, and the post-holiday A-share market is expected to enter a new upward phase. Sector allocation continues to focus on two main themes: “Technology + Resources.” The technology theme centers on AI, humanoid robots, new energy, and innovative drugs; the resource theme focuses on precious metals, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals.

Key sectors to watch include: semiconductors, AI (optical communication, liquid cooling, electronic fabrics, high-end copper foil, etc.), machinery, non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, power equipment (energy storage, ultra-high voltage, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries), and innovative drugs.

CITIC Securities Securities: Post-Holiday Liquidity Likely to Remain Ample

The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before and during the Two Sessions, with the main themes being pro-cyclicality and AI-driven growth. The Two Sessions will soon commence, and 2026 is a year ending with a ‘6’ or ‘1’, which may see renewed emphasis on stabilizing growth. Major infrastructure projects are expected to boost market confidence. The continued narrowing of PPI negative values, along with rising oil and resource prices during the holiday, suggests that pro-cyclicality driven by PPI recovery will remain a key market driver.

Post-holiday, financing balances are expected to rebound, and risk appetite may increase ahead of the Two Sessions, keeping liquidity in the A-share market abundant. The performance vacuum period and policy warming create a favorable environment for industry trend investments in the near future.

Shenwan Hongyuan: Mid-term Second-Phase Rally Still Expected

We maintain the view that a “second phase of rally” is possible, likely to start around 2026. During the Spring Festival, many risk factors persisted, and a short-term correction may continue post-holiday. Once the lower boundary of the fluctuation range is identified, preparations for the “second phase of rally” can begin, opening a window for medium-term allocations. This phase is likely to start slowly, allowing for a measured deployment.

The March Two Sessions and late March to early April US-China relations observation window may generate rebound opportunities amid market volatility. The best opportunities lie in new technological directions, such as robotics (not yet in low-cost regions), AI large models (more diffusion opportunities in A-shares), and storage. Worries about US-Iran tensions, oil, and shipping are also worth noting. Medium-term, sectors like technology and cyclical stocks remain attractive, with a positive outlook on non-bank financials’ revaluation.

China Galaxy Securities: Focus on Three Main Themes

Post-holiday, with policy expectations, liquidity support, and industry trends catalyzing, the market is likely to trend upward with volatility. Attention should be paid to short-term shocks from overseas uncertainties. Around the Two Sessions, policy-driven themes and industry opportunities will dominate, characterized by hot sector rotations and style shifts. Market logic in March will shift from “policy expectations” to “performance realization,” with 2025 annual reports and Q1 2026 reports serving as key anchors. Stocks exceeding earnings expectations may attract capital.

Key focus areas include: (1) “Anti-inflation” concepts driven by supply-demand improvements and industry profit recovery, with valuation safety margins—metals (precious metals), oil and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, building materials, and financials; (2) Hot topics like robotics and AI large models, which may show structural highlights post-holiday; (3) The accelerating global upheaval and domestic economic shift towards new productivity, emphasizing semiconductors, AI, new energy, military industry, aerospace, and other “14th Five-Year Plan” key sectors.

Industrial Securities: Continuing Optimism for Post-Holiday Uptrend

Before the holiday, A-shares adjusted with global assets, releasing some risk. Post-holiday, a high-probability window for gains is emerging, supported by US tariffs, US-China trade expectations, and domestic macro and industry catalysts. The market remains optimistic about a new upward cycle.

Relative to other sectors, technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure are favored. Focus on “pan-AI assets,” especially infrastructure for computing power and commercialization. Resource sectors benefiting from structural supply-demand improvements—mainly midstream materials and manufacturing—are also key, though upstream resources and downstream consumption related to real estate need further observation.

Finally, pay attention to the recovery opportunities in export chains after tariff reductions, especially in light industry, consumer electronics, batteries, auto parts, and medical devices, which have large US exposure and existing capacity or trade re-exports in ASEAN regions.

Guojin Securities: Key Focus on Global Physical Assets vs. Chinese Assets

The core of market style rebalancing is not whether AI bubbles exist but how AI’s macro impact interacts with monetary and major country policies. The main contradictions are shifting: investment activity is spreading from AI-driven to broader real sectors; the relatively smooth US rate-cutting path supports global manufacturing cycle recovery. China’s asset capacity value may be re-priced, with capital flows boosting domestic consumption and inflation cycles. For commodities, high volatility may revert, with industry pricing becoming more important than monetary attributes; gold, as a risk hedge, could provide solid protection amid US debt sustainability concerns.

Recommendations include: (1) Revaluation of physical assets shifting from liquidity and USD credit to low inventory and demand stabilization—copper, aluminum, tin, crude oil, shipping, rare earths, gold; (2) China’s export chain with global comparative advantage at cycle lows—power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, wafer manufacturing, and domestically bottoming-out sectors like petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide; (3) Capital inflow, easing of balance sheet reduction, and inbound personnel trends supporting consumption—airlines, duty-free, hotels, food and beverages; (4) Benefiting from market expansion and bottoming long-term asset returns—non-bank financials.

Huaxi Securities: “Red Envelope” Market Expected Post-Holiday

Looking ahead, we believe the “red envelope” market after the holiday is worth期待。First, during the Spring Festival, external uncertainties like Iran tensions and US tariffs suppressed risk appetite, boosting safe-haven assets, but strong performance in tech stocks lifted global markets. Second, amid a rebound in the US dollar index, RMB exchange rate remains stable and mildly appreciating, reinforcing long-term capital allocation to Chinese assets. Third, during the holiday, catalysts in robotics, AI large models, and storage sectors boosted expectations for tech post-holiday.

Dongwu Securities: Capital Likely to “Reignite” and Drive Momentum-Price Resonance

Historically, the “Spring Festival effect” in A-shares is prominent. Post-holiday, capital is expected to “reignite,” driving momentum and price recovery, leading to a positive market start. During the holiday, most global markets rose, and risk appetite was relatively high. Liquidity-wise, Fed rate cuts remain uncertain, but market expectations for liquidity this year are stable; offshore RMB exchange rates remained steady. Domestic demand is gradually recovering. Tech themes like robotics and domestic large models continued to ferment during the holiday. As the Two Sessions approach, market stability expectations will strengthen, and the upcoming US-China visit by Trump may stabilize external outlooks.

In terms of allocation, focus on medium-term industry trend certainty (greater resilience after correction) and the reversal of traditional economic challenges (though full recovery lacks high odds, defensive attributes are valuable). Key areas include: (1) AI and pan-AI cloud, domestic chip manufacturing (semiconductors, materials, packaging/testing), AI infrastructure, and robotics; (2) Emerging industries like commercial aerospace, quantum, hydrogen energy, brain-computer interfaces; (3) Cyclical sectors such as chemicals, building materials, leading consumer brands, engineering machinery; (4) Energy storage and strategic resources (rare earths).

Guotou Securities: Technology May Make a Comeback Post-Holiday

During the holiday, global equity markets remained stable or rose, boosting post-holiday trading sentiment in A-shares. Three major events during the holiday are noteworthy: first, US tariffs’ fluctuations—actual tariffs on China may have decreased, maintaining market hopes for US-China trade improvement; second, domestic robotics and large models received key catalysts, with US stocks’ strong performance and upcoming earnings reports further boosting tech sector enthusiasm; third, tensions in Iran, rising oil prices, and Fed rate expectations create opportunities in resource sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals.

Overall, no clear negative events impacted A-shares during the holiday, and the short-term outlook remains positive, with “tech resurgence” after the holiday being a prominent possibility.