#CanBitcoinReclaim$70K?

#BTC能否重返7万美元？
As of 28 February, the market structure has entered a more decisive phase compared to previous sessions. Bitcoin is currently trading around the $68,000 region after multiple intraday attempts to test the $69,000 zone, but it has not yet achieved sustained acceptance above $70,000. This consolidation is not random; it represents a liquidity compression phase that often precedes a strong directional move.
Market sentiment has shifted from neutral toward slightly bullish. Funding rates remain controlled, and there is no extreme long overcrowding, which is a healthy condition for a potential breakout. Open interest is gradually building, indicating capital returning to the market without aggressive leverage spikes. This structure forms a constructive base for a breakout attempt.
Lawsuit and the “10 o’clock selling pressure”
The repeated intraday sell-offs observed in previous days have noticeably slowed by 28 February. From experience, when regulatory scrutiny increases, visible manipulation tactics often decrease temporarily. However, this does not mean large players become inactive. Instead, strategies shift from obvious dumping to more subtle liquidity traps and derivatives positioning. Current price behavior appears more organic rather than forced cascade-driven volatility.
What is required to break $70,000
The key resistance zones are clearly defined:
$68,800–$69,200: short-term supply zone
$69,800–$70,200: psychological and liquidity wall
$71,500–$72,000: structural distribution region
A strong daily close above $70,200 with expanding spot volume is required for confirmation. A breakout without volume expansion could become a false move, potentially leading to sharp rejection and a retest of $64,000–$65,000.
My strategy based on the 28 February structure
I consider the $67,000–$68,000 zone a neutral accumulation band, but I avoid adding heavy exposure until $70,000 is reclaimed with confirmation. Gradual scaling remains the safer approach. If price breaks below $66,000, the next liquidity pocket likely sits around $63,000–$64,000. Strict risk management and controlled leverage remain essential.
Short-Term Outlook (Early March)
High-probability scenario: retest of $70,000 within days.
If breakout confirms: extension toward $73,000–$76,000.
If rejection occurs: retest of $64,000 before another attempt.
1–3 Month Projection
If $70,000 converts into support, the $80,000–$90,000 range becomes a realistic expansion target. Momentum compression phases are typically followed by volatility expansion. If macro weakness emerges, price could consolidate broadly between $60,000–$75,000.
3–6 Month Projection
With sustained institutional demand and stable risk sentiment, $90,000–$110,000 becomes achievable. This requires continuation of the higher-high, higher-low structure. In a breakdown scenario, extended sideways consolidation would dominate.
Year-End 2026 Balanced View
If $70,000 becomes a strong base during Q1, Bitcoin could move above $100,000 and potentially test the $120,000–$150,000 range. If repeated rejection occurs at $70,000, the cycle could be delayed, leading to prolonged mid-range consolidation.
$70,000 is more than a psychological number; it is a structural decision point. From here, the market will either accelerate upward or perform another liquidity sweep. The current structure appears controlled and cautiously bullish, but confirmation remains pending.
I remain strategically bullish, but tactically disciplined. Markets reward confirmation and risk management not emotional breakout chasing.