What Comes After a Trillion: Standard Chartered Projects $2T Stablecoin Market by Late 2028

Standard Chartered has maintained its outlook for the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by late 2028, a projection that stands in stark contrast to current market conditions where the sector remains hovering near the $300 billion mark. This significant growth trajectory hinges on three interconnected pillars: regulatory clarity, financial demand, and market infrastructure evolution.

GENIUS Act as the Regulatory Catalyst

The GENIUS Act represents a crucial policy framework that could accelerate stablecoin adoption among institutional players. According to Standard Chartered’s analysis, this regulatory framework serves as a primary catalyst for establishing clearer rules around stablecoin issuance and usage, ultimately fostering broader institutional acceptance. Clear regulatory guidelines have historically been the missing piece in driving traditional finance into emerging asset classes, and stablecoins are no exception. The policy pillar is central to bridging the gap between the $300 billion current market size and the $2 trillion target.

T-Bill Demand Recalibration: A Market Reality Check

Standard Chartered has revised its projections for additional Treasury bill demand stemming from stablecoin growth. The bank now models an additional $800 billion to $1 trillion in T-bill demand by 2028, down substantially from its previous estimate of $1.6 trillion. This downward revision reflects a more conservative assessment of how rapidly stablecoin adoption will drive demand for safe-haven assets. The recalibration is significant because it suggests that while trillion-dollar outcomes are achievable, they may not unfold uniformly across all asset classes. The T-bill component, in particular, may face structural constraints.

Market Infrastructure Evolution: The T-Bill Scarcity Question

Beyond demand forecasts, Standard Chartered highlights potential market structure challenges that could reshape how stablecoins interact with the broader financial system. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing Reverse Repo operations and its strategy of replacing maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with Treasury bills introduce a new dynamic to bill market dynamics. This plumbing-level concern centers on whether Treasury bills could become overly scarce—a scenario where supply constraints might actually limit stablecoin collateral options. As the Fed reshapes its balance sheet, the market faces an unusual problem: demand for bills might exceed available supply, potentially creating the kind of structural bottleneck that forces market participants to adapt their strategies.

The path from $300 billion to $2 trillion in stablecoin market cap is neither linear nor risk-free. It requires regulatory progress, measured institutional adoption, and a financial plumbing system robust enough to handle trillion-dollar scale flows.