The BTC vs Gold chart and what the RSI reveals about the current cycle

Comparing Bitcoin and Gold offers a completely different perspective from the traditional BTC vs. Dollar narrative. While we know that dollar valuations tend to increase over the years, the contrast between these two durable assets tells a much more intriguing story about the present moment.

The RSI history in previous cycles

The BTC/Gold chart shows a fascinating pattern when observing the oscillation between highs and lows over the years. The weekly RSI indicator, which measures an asset’s relative strength on a scale of 0 to 100, is now at its most extremely low level in recorded history.

This position precisely coincides with the lows of each previous cycle. From November 2013 to January 2015, during December 2017 to February 2019, and again from April 2021 to June 2022, each bear market in BTC/Gold lasted approximately 14 months. What did the RSI indicate at those times? Exactly the same extreme oversold condition we see now.

The October 2025 peak in perspective

The common perception is that Bitcoin hit its all-time high in dollars just a few months ago, in October 2025, suggesting we are at the beginning of a downtrend. However, a closer look at the BTC/Gold chart tells a different story. Bitcoin reached its peak relative to gold in December 2024, meaning we have been in contraction for about 14 months.

That October dollar peak may not have been a genuine force of Bitcoin itself. It was probably the result of gold and silver rising simultaneously, dragging Bitcoin’s price up with them, creating an illusion of strength. In real terms, when priced in gold, Bitcoin has been steadily declining for over a year.

Extreme RSI levels: what does it mean for investors

What is RSI fundamentally? It’s an indicator that identifies when an asset is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30), signaling potential reversal points. When RSI hits extremely low levels like now, historically it marks significant changes in market cycles.

Instead of being at the start of a declining market, there’s a real possibility we are at the final chapter of one. Every time BTC/Gold RSI reached these extreme lows, it was invariably followed by years of strong bullish trend.

The expected trend after these historic lows

The history of previous cycles offers a clear lesson: these moments of RSI at extreme levels always preceded major recovery moves. Anyone betting that this extreme bottom will keep falling is essentially challenging a pattern that has repeatedly occurred over more than a decade.

The $126.08K all-time high for Bitcoin demonstrates the asset’s appreciation potential. Ultimately, every time the market hit these critical RSI levels, it was the best time to accumulate positions. History suggests these periods should result in substantial returns for investors who recognize the opportunity.