How far is the Bitcoin bear market bottom from us? Market bottom signals from LTH distribution

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $65K, and the market continues to bottom out. Many investors are asking the same question: How much farther is the bear market? The answer may be closer than we think. To understand this distance, we must first grasp the true behavior of long-term holders (LTH).

The Participant Structure in This Cycle Has Changed

Unlike previous cycles, this market has welcomed new participants—traditional capital giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy, along with mechanisms such as ETFs and national strategic reserves. Many initially believed that with these “protective shields,” the bulls wouldn’t fear the backlash from the bears. But reality has given us a profound lesson: We greatly underestimated the strength of the bears.

The Story Behind 5.095 Million Bitcoins

Since mid-2025, LTHs have initiated a massive liquidation. Data shows they have sold a total of 5.095 million BTC, accounting for 25% of the circulating supply. This number is staggering—if I hadn’t seen the data myself, I wouldn’t believe long-term holders could offload so much in such a short time.

However, even more thought-provoking is what happened next: The actual net reduction of LTHs is only 417,000 BTC. What does this mean? That 4.78 million BTC have been absorbed by new buyers, becoming new long-term holders. These new buyers are precisely the traditional capital players like BlackRock, MSTR, and other unseen major entities.

The Bulls’ “Layered Resistance” Tactics

In this battle between bulls and bears, the bulls have not chosen aggressive counterattacks but instead adopted a patient “soft counter” strategy. From $100K, $85K, to now around $67K, each price level has seen strong demand absorption. This is no coincidence but a carefully calculated strategy—the bulls are gradually retreating while depleting the bears’ momentum layer by layer.

The brilliance of this tactic lies in the fact that as long as the price offers enough value, new demand will continuously emerge. Traditional capital is not rushing to reverse the market outright but quietly absorbing during every panic sell-off, slowly weakening the bears’ strength. If this resistance wave fails, the bulls will retreat to the next defensive zone, waiting for the optimal moment to strike back.

The Bear Bottom Is Already Very Close

The key question is: How much more chips do LTHs have left to cash out near $60K? Based on current data trends, this motivation is gradually weakening. The selling pressure used by bears to push the market lower is running out, while the bulls’ patient buying remains ample.

When one side’s momentum is exhausted, the other gains the market’s pricing power. The bear bottom is not far from us—what we need most now is time. During this window, bears will gradually exhaust their last strength, and that will be the moment for the bulls to turn the tide and launch a counterattack.

Investor Takeaways

The most prudent approach now is to wait—not passively, but to prepare for the opportunities ahead. The bottom is getting closer, and the key is to let time do the work in depleting the bears’ final reserves.