Trump Iranian missile claim unsupported by U.S. intelligence, say sources

• Summary

• Trump says Iran will ‘soon’ have weapons that can hit U.S.

• Sources say Trump claim unsupported by intelligence

• DIA assessed Iran will not have ICBM until 2035

• Rubio says Iran ‘on pathway to one day’ have such weapons

WASHINGTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran will soon have a missile that can hit the United States is not backed by U.S. intelligence reports, and appears to be exaggerated, according to three sources familiar with the reports, casting doubt on part of his case for a possible attack on the Islamic Republic.

In his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, Trump began making his case to the American public for why the U.S. could launch strikes against Iran, saying Tehran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” the United States.

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But there have been no changes, two sources said, to an unclassified 2025 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a “militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile” (ICBM) from its existing satellite-lofting space-launch vehicles (SLV).

“President Trump is absolutely right to highlight the grave concern posed by Iran, a country that chants ‘death to America,’ possessing intercontinental ballistic missiles," said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly.

One source said that even if China or North Korea - which closely cooperate with Iran - provided technological assistance, Iran would probably take up to eight years at the earliest to produce “something that is actually ICBM level and operational.”

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive intelligence, said they were unaware of any U.S. intelligence assessments that Iran was developing a missile that could soon range the U.S. homeland but did not rule out the possibility of a new intelligence report they were unaware of.

The New York Times first reported that U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran is probably years away from having missiles that can hit the United States.

RUBIO SAYS IRAN ON ‘PATHWAY’ TO WEAPONS THAT CAN REACH U.S.

Trump’s claim about Iran’s missile capability came as representatives from the U.S. and Iran negotiate over Tehran’s nuclear program, with no signs of a breakthrough that could avert potential U.S. strikes amid a massive military buildup in the region.

The U.S. president has done little to explain publicly why he might be leading the U.S. into its most aggressive action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution.

In his address on Tuesday, Trump pointed to Tehran’s support for militant groups, its killing of protesters and the country’s missile and nuclear programs as threats to the region and the United States.

Without providing evidence, Trump said that Tehran was beginning to rebuild the nuclear program that he claimed had been “obliterated” by U.S. airstrikes last June on three major sites involved with uranium enrichment.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday referred to Iran’s ballistic missile program in less definitive terms than Trump, saying that Tehran is “on a pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental U.S.”

Iran denies seeking a nuclear arsenal, saying its enrichment of uranium – a process that produces fuel for power plants and nuclear warheads depending on its duration – is strictly for civilian uses.

In an interview with India Today TV released on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that Iran was expanding its missile capabilities.

“We are not developing long range missiles. We have limited range to below 2000 kilometers intentionally,” he said. “We don’t want it to be a global threat. We only have (them) to defend ourselves. Our missiles build deterrence.”

WEAPONS PROGRAM SHUTTERED IN 2003, ACCORDING TO IAEA

The U.S. intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear watchdog, have said that Iran shuttered a nuclear weapons development program in 2003.

But according to the IAEA, Tehran has in recent years continued enriching uranium, including to near weapons-grade.

Trump has threatened to attack Iran if it executes people arrested during nationwide anti-government protests in January or fails to agree a deal on its nuclear program in talks with the U.S.

Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, with its missiles able to strike Israel, U.S. bases in the region and parts of Europe."

It also has developed so-called space-launch vehicles that have put satellites into orbit and that experts say could be modified into ICBMs that could loft nuclear warheads.

While SLVs loft satellites, ICBMs release re-entry vehicles that protect warheads from the high temperatures and forces produced by hurtling down through the Earth’s atmosphere.

But David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector, said Iran was a long way away from being able to mount atop a missile a nuclear warhead-carrying re-entry vehicle that could survive the extreme heat and forces of plunging through Earth’s atmosphere.

“Iran can launch a very long-range missile because of its space launch program,” said Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security think tank. “But it needs lots of work to develop an adequate RV (re-entry vehicle).”

Albright and other experts noted that Israeli airstrikes last year and in 2024 had badly damaged key facilities where Tehran produces liquid- and solid-fuel ballistic missiles.

Reporting by Jonathan Landay, Humeyra Pamuk and Gram Slattery; Editing by Don Durfee and Michael Perry

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Humeyra Pamuk

Thomson Reuters

Humeyra Pamuk is a senior foreign policy correspondent based in Washington DC. She covers the U.S. State Department, regularly traveling with U.S. Secretary of State. During her 20 years with Reuters, she has had postings in London, Dubai, Cairo and Turkey, covering everything from the Arab Spring and Syria’s civil war to numerous Turkish elections and the Kurdish insurgency in the southeast. In 2017, she won the Knight-Bagehot fellowship program at Columbia University’s School of Journalism. She holds a BA in International Relations and an MA on European Union studies.

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Gram Slattery

Thomson Reuters

Gram Slattery is a White House correspondent in Washington, focusing on national security, intelligence and foreign affairs. His work covers how key U.S. foreign policy decisions are debated, shaped and executed. He was previously a national political correspondent, covering the 2024 presidential campaign. From 2015 to 2022, he held postings in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Santiago, Chile, and he has reported extensively throughout Latin America.

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