[In-Depth Insight] How Diamond Hands See Through the 2026 Bitcoin Bottom Trap—Three Major Data Ironclad Evidence Revealing the True Buying Opportunity

When you view Bitcoin’s price movements through the traditional US dollar lens, it’s easy to be fooled by a “prosperity illusion.” But if you’re a long-term investor as solid as a diamond, with enough patience to analyze the underlying logic, you’ll find that the current crypto market is at a critical juncture filled with opportunities yet severely undervalued. This article will explore the true bottom signals of Bitcoin from three dimensions: macro cycles, on-chain data, and miner behavior, providing specific guidance for the layered deployment strategy in 2026.

Unveiling the Dollar Illusion—Why the 14-Month Cycle Has Signaled a Major Bottom in History

Many investors see Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in USD terms in October 2025 and then retracing nearly 50%, believing a bear market has just begun. But this perception contains a fatal bias—they overlook a core fact: the US dollar system itself is undergoing structural devaluation.

Over the past year, amid inflation, hard assets like gold and silver have risen in tandem. Bitcoin’s new high in USD largely reflects fiat currency depreciation, not an actual increase in Bitcoin’s purchasing power. If we re-anchor using the ultimate hard currency—gold—we find a shocking truth: Bitcoin’s relative value compared to gold peaked as early as December 2024. Since then, the price structure has completed a full 14-month decline cycle.

This pattern is no coincidence. Historically, each major macro adjustment (2013-2015, 2017-2019, 2021-2022) has followed approximately a 14-month cycle. In terms of timing, the current correction has already reached this point; in momentum, the RSI indicator has been pushed to historically low levels. Blindly bearish bets essentially gamble on the first failure of this historical pattern—which is statistically unwise.

On-Chain Chips and Flesh—Realized Price and MVRV Lock in the $55,000 Ultimate Bottom

The macro cycle provides the timing, but on-chain data precisely defines the price zone.

At true market bottoms, despair among “long-term holders” inevitably emerges. According to the latest on-chain data, we are witnessing this brutal process. The key indicator, MVRV Z-Score, has plummeted into the “deep capitulation” zone, indicating that most circulating Bitcoin is underwater in profit and loss. Short-term holders’ psychological defenses have been broken, and even the steadfast long-term holders are beginning to painfully unload coins near breakeven.

More critically, the realized price—representing the average cost of all Bitcoin last moved—serves as an objective reflection of the real market price. Currently, this line is around $55,000. Historically, at every major bottom, Bitcoin has touched or briefly penetrated this level to thoroughly clear out the last leverage. The current price is about $65,810, leaving some room before reaching this ultimate support line, but that margin is shrinking rapidly.

Miner Capitulation—The Mourning of Surrender, Signaling an Imminent Reversal

From a peak of $126,080 to the current price, the halving of the price has shattered the survival logic of high-energy-consuming miners. The latest data shows total network hash rate has dropped by about 15%. The Hash Ribbons indicator, which reflects short- and long-term hash power battles, has been stuck in the “surrender” zone for the past two months, indicating many small and medium miners are forced to sell their accumulated Bitcoin to pay electricity bills.

However, when this bottom-layer forced selling is ruthlessly absorbed by the market, and inefficient hash power is thoroughly wiped out, it often marks the establishment of a major market bottom.

Looking at Ethereum (ETH) now reveals this despair—price has fallen below $2,000, and recent developer conferences no longer feature talk of wealth explosions, MEME hype, or frenzied airdrops. Everyone is silently holding their ground. Without this deep despair, the next true bull market cannot emerge. When negative sentiment is exhausted, it often signals a key turning point.

The 2026 Diamond-Hand Layered Deployment—A Three-Tier Pyramid Practical Buying Guide

In summary, the logic is clear: the timing cycle has matured, momentum indicators are at extremes, speculative bubbles have been squeezed dry, and miner selling pressure is waning. Now is not the time to cut losses; it’s the moment for smart capital to start deploying.

But this doesn’t mean you should go all-in. The bottom is a zone, and the market may torment bulls with wide-range oscillations and malicious “dips,” even deliberately creating false breakouts below previous lows to trigger liquidity. Therefore, a strict layered dollar-cost averaging strategy is essential.

First Tier: Establish the Base Position (30% of funds)

Entry Range: $64,000–$67,000

Logic: The macro odds are already apparent. To avoid missing out due to a repeat of historical pattern reversal, you must hold the core chips at this level. Buying here is a “time-loss, not space-loss” low-risk game.

Second Tier: Add on the Psychological Barrier (30% of funds)

Entry Range: $59,000–$61,000

Logic: Breaking below the $60,000 integer will trigger panic selling and negative media coverage. This tranche is prepared to absorb retail stop-losses and panic dumps.

Third Tier: Catch the Final Bloodbath (40% of funds)

Entry Range: $53,000–$56,000

Logic: This is the last reserve for “black swan” events or major forced capitulations by large players. Once prices fall into this zone, it’s the final and most critical accumulation opportunity for diamond hands.

The difference between true investors and speculators is that the former can see hope in despair and recognize patterns amid volatility. In 2026, those who diligently follow this layered strategy and remain unmoved by short-term fluctuations will reap the most abundant gains from this historic bottom.