Mexico Trade Gap Surges Past Forecasts

Mexico posted a trade deficit of $6.48 billion in January 2026, compared to $5.21 billion a year earlier and well above forecasts of $2.20 billion. Merchandise imports totaled $54.49 billion, up 9.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by intermediate goods at $43.12 billion (14.2%), particularly strong growth in non-petroleum intermediates (16.5%). Capital goods imports fell 4.4% to $4.38 billion, while consumer goods imports declined 3.8% to $6.99 billion, largely due to a sharp drop in petroleum consumer goods (-35.2%). Merchandise exports reached $48.01 billion, up 8.1% year-over-year, as non-oil exports rose 9.8%, offsetting a 33.5% decline in oil exports. Non-oil exports to the US increased 7.9%, while those to the rest of the world surged 19.6%. Manufactured goods exports climbed 9.4% to $43.51 billion, though automotive exports fell 9.0% due to a 16.7% drop in US shipments. Agricultural and fishing exports totaled $1.85 billion, down 11.6%.