BTC and Gold 14-Month Cycle Patterns: Is a Market Bottom Signal Appearing?

Cryptocurrency analysts have recently noticed an interesting phenomenon — Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold seems to follow a certain repeatable market pattern. According to the well-known KOL Ted, the historical patterns of the BTC/Gold trading pair are worth a deeper exploration. This topic has sparked widespread reflection among investors in early 2026: can this cyclical regularity help us determine market bottoms?

14-Month Historical Patterns: Repetition of Three Cycles

Looking back at Bitcoin’s development, a clear pattern emerges — the relative performance of BTC versus gold shows remarkable regularity. In the key years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, similar cyclical patterns were observed. Each time, starting from the bear market, the 14-month mark became a critical turning point.

These patterns are not coincidental. During the first complete bear cycle in 2014, the BTC/Gold ratio reached a cyclical low around 14 months. The same situation repeated in 2018 and was confirmed again in 2022. This consistency has led analysts to consider whether there is a deeper cyclical driving force in the market.

Current BTC/Gold Bear Market: Is the Bottom Near?

As we enter 2026, market participants face a related question. Based on the timeline, the current bear cycle has already lasted quite a while. If these historical patterns continue to hold, we might be approaching the bottom of the fourth cycle. But it’s important to emphasize — this speculation is based on observing historical regularities, not a definitive prediction.

The trend of BTC relative to gold offers a unique perspective. Unlike simply focusing on Bitcoin’s price, this ratio reflects Bitcoin’s relative position within the entire risk asset ecosystem. When this ratio is low, it indicates that investors’ risk appetite for Bitcoin is relatively low; when high, the opposite.

How Investors Can Understand These Market Patterns

For market participants, understanding these historical patterns mainly involves recognizing that cyclicality is not an absolute law. Market conditions, macro factors, and policy changes can all alter existing patterns. Past patterns can serve as a reference framework but should not be relied upon as certain predictive tools.

Many analysts and investors are closely monitoring current market dynamics to verify whether this 14-month cycle will recur. Regardless of the outcome, studying these historical patterns can help market participants better understand the operational characteristics of the cryptocurrency market — even if these patterns ultimately prove to be imperfect.