Apple (AAPL) Expected to Gain Share Even as Smartphone Market Could See Biggest-Ever Drop in 2026

The International Data Corporation (IDC), a market research firm, expects the global smartphone market to see a 12.9% drop in shipments to 1.12 billion units in 2026 due to rising memory chip prices. According to IDC, this would mark the biggest-ever decline for the smartphone market, Reuters reported. Nonetheless, IDC expects Apple AAPL -0.47% ▼ and Samsung SSNLF +54.05% ▲ to gain market share despite the ongoing challenges.

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IDC Warns of Sharp Decline in Smartphone Shipments

IDC believes that large players such as Apple and Samsung have solid balance sheets and premium positioning in the smartphone market. This would shield them from the ongoing memory crisis compared to smaller players. Notably, IDC expects low-end Android phone makers to be the most affected. Meanwhile, IDC projects that the average selling price of smartphones will rise by 14% to $523 in 2026, as smartphone makers move toward higher-margin models to mitigate rising costs.

Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC’s Mobile Phone Tracker, cautioned that the ongoing rise in memory chip prices will not just result in a temporary drop in smartphone shipments, but will lead to a “structural reset” of the entire market. Specifically, Popal expects the sub-$100 smartphone segment, which comprises 171 million devices, to become “permanently uneconomical” even after memory prices stabilize by mid-2027.

Memory chip prices have been rising as tech giants like Microsoft MSFT +0.28% ▲ , Alphabet GOOGL -1.76% ▼ , and Meta Platforms META +0.51% ▲ have been securing much of the supply as they invest aggressively to build AI infrastructure.

Is AAPL Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Last month, Apple reported upbeat results for the December quarter, reflecting resilience amid challenging business conditions and intense competition. The company generated a 23% surge in its iPhone revenue, driven by solid demand for the iPhone 17 models released in September 2025. While the company experienced minimal impact from memory prices in the December quarter, it expects a greater impact in the March quarter.

Currently, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Apple stock based on 17 Buys, nine Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average AAPL stock price target of $307.55 indicates 12.7% upside potential.

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