3.48 million BTC are continuously changing hands. What does the strategic positioning of smart money mean?

The latest data set is truly thought-provoking. Believers-driven buyers have accumulated a total of 3.48 million Bitcoin, reaching a new high in this cycle. More notably, since the beginning of this year, this group has added another 1.22 million BTC. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $67,730, but these continuous buy-ins are happening at prices higher than those during past major crashes. What does this mean? It indicates that the truly smart money is demonstrating the meaning of a bottom through action.

Continuous Accumulation: The Real Logic Behind Bottom Formation

Many believe that smart money buys at the lowest point, but the reality is quite the opposite. The most intelligent participants in the market never aim for perfect bottom-fishing. Instead, they execute a strategy called “accumulation”—buying steadily whenever there is suitable supply, until the excess liquidity in the market is fully absorbed.

This process is like a constantly expanding sponge, gradually soaking up panic sell-offs. When this sponge becomes saturated, market supply shrinks, and a bottom becomes inevitable. From a spatial perspective, Bitcoin is indeed approaching the bottom range of the last cycle—that drop from $17,000 to $15,000 was quite similar.

But the problem is: approaching the bottom in price doesn’t mean the bottom is already in terms of time.

The Time Trap: Why the Bottom Is a Process, Not a Point

This is the cruelest part of the market. In the previous cycle, it took a full 7 months from the spatial bottom to a true market reversal. It’s not just about waiting; it’s a psychological process of continual depletion—sideways movement, repeated small rebounds, then further declines until participants give up entirely.

Most people can’t endure this because they lack the resilience to handle the passage of time. When you think you’ve bottomed out, the market may still torment you with months of sideways trading. When you finally can’t take it anymore and sell, the real bull market is just around the corner.

What does this mean? The bottom isn’t a price point you can pinpoint; it’s a process involving human psychology and market dynamics. That 3.48 million BTC being continuously bought by institutions and long-term holders isn’t because they know exactly where the bottom is, but because they understand the essence of this game—time is the enemy of retail investors and the ally of real capital.

Fundamental Shift in Token Distribution

When such a massive amount of Bitcoin is continuously bought and held by long-term holders, the market’s token structure undergoes a profound change. What does this imply? It means that when the next bull run begins, the circulating supply of tokens will be significantly reduced, and these holders are typically not quick to sell.

Imagine a scenario: when market sentiment fully shifts and risk appetite reawakens, the retail coins that were repeatedly shaken out at the bottom have already been cleaned out. Only genuine long-term capital remains. This structural contraction on the supply side, combined with an impending demand explosion, will cause the price to behave in a certain way—an outcome that’s easy to predict.

This explains why each real bull market tends to produce more extreme prices than the previous one. It’s not that the market becomes crazier; it’s that token concentration increases.

The Key Divide in Cognition and Wealth

Returning to the original question: how far are we from the bottom?

Spatially, we are very close. Temporally, it may still require ongoing patience and endurance. But the more critical point is never about how far the bottom is in price, but whether you truly understand that this bottom isn’t something you buy into, but something you endure.

The smart money continuously accumulating BTC is called “smart” not because they can predict future prices, but because they see through the game’s rules. They know wealth accumulation comes from depth of understanding, not luck. While ordinary investors are still asking, “Where is the bottom?” these funds are already asking, “How much more can I keep buying?”

This is the ultimate gap—it evolves from differences in cognition to differences in perspective, and ultimately into disparities in wealth.

Final Rational Judgment

Are you prepared to keep deploying during others’ panic? Can you persist through long sideways periods with your strategy? The answers to these questions will ultimately determine whether you can benefit from this cycle.

The process of bottom formation is fundamentally a test of patience and cognition. Recognizing this in itself means you’ve taken the most important step forward.