Extreme conditions will reverse! Market sentiment hits a freezing point, potentially signaling a bullish turning point. The BTC rebound window has appeared.

The current market is in a state of extreme pessimism, and such extreme sentiment often signals a turning point. Bitcoin remains in a range-bound consolidation, with relatively weak momentum. The market fear index is at a historic low, and most cryptocurrencies have long-term negative funding rates—these all indicate that retail investors have completely lost their courage to enter. Frequent fluctuations have forced many investors to cut losses and exit, but from a contrarian perspective, this extreme pessimism is a sign that a reversal is imminent. At this point, we should instead focus on potential long opportunities and at least hold onto our current positions.

The Rebound Logic Behind Extreme Pessimism

The principle that extremes tend to reverse is fundamental to market operation. When market sentiment hits rock bottom, most participants have already exited or been shaken out, and the bearish forces begin to weaken. After a rapid decline, if the bears cannot push prices lower, a rebound becomes highly probable. The current situation is exactly this—although the bears are still exerting pressure, the difficulty of further downward movement is increasing, making it harder for prices to break lower.

Looking at capital flows, negative funding rates indicate that short positions dominate the market, but extreme short interest also signals risk accumulation. Once sentiment shifts, the rebound can be quite vigorous.

Technical Confirmation of a Bottom Formation

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has already formed a clear bullish divergence, and the latest technical indicators confirm a golden cross signal. These suggest that a technical bottom is gradually taking shape. Combined with the choppy, oscillating price action, the likelihood of a rebound increases significantly after multiple tests of support.

The key support level is very clear—if Bitcoin can hold above $64,000, the technical foundation for a rebound is solid. Currently trading at around $67.3K, there is still a considerable margin of safety below this support.

Precise Risk Management and Positioning Strategy

In the current market environment, the lower end of the $65,000 to $74,000 range, especially around $65,000, offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for long entries. This price zone provides strong technical and sentiment support, making the risk manageable.

For participants, a stop-loss can be set below $64,000. The core logic is: if the daily candle closes with a solid break below $64,000, it indicates that the downside space may reopen, and the stop should be triggered. Conversely, if this level holds, the rebound potential remains intact.

Overall, under the market law that extremes tend to reverse, the current sentiment at a low point is the best opportunity to prepare. Exercise patience, wait for confirmation signals of a rebound, and this opportunity is worth seizing.