Bitcoin approaches $70,000, but why are the futures and options markets flashing a "caution" red light?

Bitcoin price once again approached the $70,000 mark in late February 2026. According to Gate data, as of February 27, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at $67,300, down 1.35% in 24 hours, with a 7-day decline of 3.18%. Although the price rebounded from earlier lows and attempted to retake the psychological barrier of $70,000, the seemingly optimistic market signals are contrasted by very different indications from the Bitcoin derivatives market. Futures premiums remain subdued, while options market hedging activity remains active, suggesting that professional traders are not fooled by the current rebound but are instead hedging against potential downside risks. This article will analyze this market divergence in depth, using data and sentiment analysis to explore the structural reasons behind the weak upward momentum in Bitcoin’s current rally.

Market Coldness Amid Price Rebound: Derivatives Data Reveals the Truth

Over the past week, Bitcoin experienced a significant V-shaped rebound. After hitting a low of $62,500 on February 24, bulls quickly gained momentum, testing the $70,000 resistance again on February 26. However, this price recovery did not ignite the usual bullish enthusiasm in the derivatives markets.

A key indicator of professional traders’ leverage preferences—the two-month Bitcoin futures annualized premium—remains around 2%. This level is well below the 5% threshold that separates bullish from bearish sentiment (the neutral threshold). Typically, when futures premiums exceed 5-10%, it indicates optimistic market sentiment, with leveraged longs willing to pay higher costs to hold positions. Conversely, persistent premiums below 5% reflect weak demand and a lack of confidence among traders in a sustained rally.

Notably, since Bitcoin broke below the $85,000 support level on January 31—after holding for over nine months—the futures premium indicator has remained depressed, never returning above the neutral threshold. This suggests a structural shift in overall risk appetite, rather than just short-term volatility.

Options Market Prioritizes Hedging: Fear Still Lingers

Complementing the futures market signals, options market pricing models also depict a cautious outlook. The 30-day delta skew—measuring the cost difference between puts and calls—shows that Bitcoin’s put options remain more expensive than call options.

As of February 27, the skew value held around 14%, indicating that hedging downside risk costs significantly more than betting on upside. In a neutral or optimistic environment, this indicator typically fluctuates between -6% and +6%. Although the figure has fallen from the panic-high of 28% earlier this week, the 14% skew amid a price rebound above $67,000 clearly points to a risk-averse market sentiment, with participants more focused on protection than profit.

Facts:

• Bitcoin rebounded from $62,500, approaching $70,000.
• The two-month futures annualized premium is 2%, below the neutral 5%.
• The 30-day options delta skew is 14%, with puts still significantly priced higher.

Analysis:

The persistent low futures premium combined with high options skew reflects a cautious market mood. This is not just short-term hesitation but indicates a fundamental shift in risk appetite.

Who Is Creating the Anxiety?

As prices rise while derivatives signals remain cautious, various theories attempt to explain Bitcoin’s weak performance, sparking debate within the community.

Hypothesis 1: Large-scale Sell-offs or Shorting by a Single Entity

Some market participants attribute price suppression to actions by a major institution or quant fund. Rumors point to firms like Jane Street playing a role. This speculation has gained traction due to their holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs and mining company stocks, but analysts suggest it’s more likely part of a delta-neutral strategy—holding spot while shorting futures to hedge risk—rather than outright bearishness on the market.

Hypothesis 2: Quantum Computing Threats to Cybersecurity

Another macro-level concern involves fears that quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s long-term cryptographic security. Some strategists have moved Bitcoin out of their portfolios over these worries. The community has discussed technical responses, such as the BIP-360 draft proposal to prepare for post-quantum cryptography. However, linking this long-term, unmaterialized risk directly to current price weakness is somewhat tenuous; it’s more an indirect influence on sentiment.

Hypothesis 3: Widespread Decline in Macro Risk Appetite

A more plausible explanation is macroeconomic shifts. Recently, major tech stocks in the US experienced declines after strong earnings reports, indicating investors are more inclined to take profits or avoid risk rather than chase higher prices. This overall risk aversion explains why Bitcoin struggles to attract fresh capital, even amid positive news.

Facts:

• Jane Street’s holdings have been publicly disclosed.
• Developers have submitted BIP-360 to address post-quantum security.
• US tech stocks fell after earnings.

Analysis:

• Interpreting Jane Street’s holdings as market manipulation lacks concrete evidence.
• Quantum computing threats are a long-term narrative with limited short-term impact.

Conclusion:

A decline in macro risk appetite appears to be the most comprehensive explanation for Bitcoin’s underperformance.

Scenario Evolution: How Might Caution Shape Future Movements?

Given the current structural contradiction—price rising but sentiment remaining cautious—possible future scenarios include:

Scenario 1: Caution Proves a False Signal, Price Breaks Higher

If macroeconomic data improves or risk assets rebound broadly, the suppressed futures premium could quickly recover. A sustained move above $72,000 might trigger short covering in options markets, causing the skew to flip and fueling a bullish rally.

Scenario 2: Caution Persists, Market Enters a Range-Bound Phase

This scenario aligns with current data. Futures premiums and skew remain in pessimistic territory, with prices unable to break through the strong resistance at $75,000. The market may need more time to digest macro uncertainties until new catalysts emerge.

Scenario 3: Risk Aversion Escalates, Leading to a Double Bottom

If macro risks intensify or derivatives market sentiment shifts to panic, the fragile support levels could break. Given the extreme lack of bullish positions in futures, prices might quickly fall to $60,000 or lower to find new equilibrium. The high options skew provides hedging protection, which could reinforce downward moves if triggered.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current attempt to reach $70,000 faces an unprecedented complex situation: spot market resilience is not translating into derivatives market confidence. Low futures premiums and high options hedging demand reflect internal discord among professional traders. This isn’t mere noise but signals a profound market structural change driven by macro risks, technological narratives, and capital flows. Investors should monitor derivatives indicators closely, as they often reveal smarter money’s intentions earlier and more accurately than spot prices. Until this cautious sentiment is fully resolved, any upward breakout may face repeated tests and setbacks.