Blood-colored Bottom: Bitcoin's Ultimate Buying Opportunity in 2026, The Truth Hidden Behind the Dollar Illusion

Many investors have been deceived by the “Dollar Illusion.” Watching the BTC/USD price trend on the screen, it seems not far from a new all-time high, but little do they realize that behind this lies a bloody deleveraging cycle about to bottom out. When we strip away the noise of dollar devaluation and re-examine Bitcoin’s true value using gold as the ultimate hard currency anchor, a shocking fact emerges: the price structure has completed a full recession cycle, and we are now in a bottom zone filled with bloodshed but孕育着史诗级机会的历史大底区间。

Macro Cycle Reached: The End of the 14-Month Bear Market Pattern

Why do many believe the bear market has just begun? The root cause lies in the bias of the valuation unit. In October 2025, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high priced in USD, but this was largely driven by fiat currency devaluation and liquidity inflation, not an intrinsic increase in Bitcoin’s real purchasing power.

Over the past year, the dollar system has experienced a broad rise in prices amid inflation, causing not only Bitcoin but also hard assets like gold and silver to surge simultaneously. This creates a “Dollar Illusion”—nominal prices hit new highs, but real purchasing power relative to other assets is actually weakening.

Measuring in gold reveals a startling pattern: Bitcoin’s real value relative to gold peaked as early as December 2024. Since then, the price structure has completed a full 14-month decline cycle.

Looking back at history, Bitcoin has experienced three major macro retracements (2013-2015, 2017-2019, 2021-2022), all lasting about 14 months. The current decline has already run its full typical bear market length in terms of time; in momentum terms, RSI has been pushed to historically low levels. Blindly bearish at this point essentially bets on the “first failure” of historical patterns, which from a probability perspective is highly unwise.

Bloodshed on Chain Data: The Iron Support at $55,000

The macro cycle provides the timing, but on-chain data precisely marks the bottom line. In a true bear market bottom, despair selling by “long-term holders” is inevitable.

According to the latest on-chain data, this brutal process is underway, but the final panic pulse before complete “cleansing” may still be coming. The key indicator measuring overall network pain, the MVRV Z-Score, has plummeted into the “deep capitulation” zone, indicating that most circulating coins are underwater at a loss.

Short-term holders’ psychological defenses have been broken, and even the steadfast long-term holders are starting to sell at breakeven or slight loss. More critically, the realized price—representing the average cost of all last movements of Bitcoin—has fallen to around $55,000.

Historically, major bottoms often see Bitcoin approaching or briefly piercing this level to blow out the last leverage. The current price around $67K is already quite close to this ultimate support, serving as another piece of evidence for the bottom zone.

Digesting the Negative: Miner Capitulation and Ecosystem Despair Signals

From $126,000 down to just over $60,000, the halving of the price has shattered the survival logic of high-energy-consuming miners. Currently, the total network hash rate has dropped roughly 15%. The Hash Ribbons indicator, representing short- and long-term hash rate battles, has been stuck in the “capitulation” zone for the past two months, forcing many small and medium miners to sell their accumulated BTC to pay electricity bills.

However, when this bottom-layer forced selling is fully absorbed by the market and inefficient hash power is thoroughly wiped out, it often marks the establishment of the long-term bottom. Although this bloody process is painful, it is a necessary step for market self-healing.

Looking at the Ethereum ecosystem, the price has fallen below $2,000. Recently, at developer conferences, the buzz about getting rich quick, MEME tokens, or frenzied airdrops has vanished. Everyone is silently enduring the winter. This deep despair is precisely a precursor to the next bull run. Without such bloody cleansing, a true revaluation of value would be impossible.

Pyramid-Style Accumulation Opportunities in 2026: The Window for Smart Capital

The bottom is a range, not a single point. Within this range, the market is likely to torment bulls with wide oscillations and malicious downward probing, even deliberately creating false breakouts below previous lows to trap liquidity.

Based on the three main dimensions—time cycle completion, momentum extremes, exhausted speculative bubbles, and miner selling pressure nearing exhaustion—the entry point for smart capital has arrived. But this does not mean going all-in at once. Instead, a strict pyramid-style phased accumulation strategy should be adopted:

Phase 1: Build the Base Position (30% of funds)

Entry zone: $67,000–$69,000

Logic: The macro odds are fully apparent. Buying at this level is a low-risk game of losing time but not space, preventing missing out if history repeats and prices reverse suddenly.

Phase 2: Add at Psychological Threshold (30% of funds)

Entry zone: $59,000–$61,000

Logic: Breaking below the $60,000 key level will trigger panic selling and negative media coverage. This tranche is prepared to absorb retail stop-losses and panic dumps.

Phase 3: Catch the Final Bloodbath (40% of funds)

Entry zone: $53,000–$56,000

Logic: Reserved for black swan events or major capitulation by whales. Approaching the realized price support at around $55,000, this zone is the last line of defense.

This bloody bottom forging is shaping the wealth opportunities of the next decade. In 2026, true patience and wisdom will be ruthlessly rewarded by the market.