How Iran Turns the Tide After Being "Pulled by the US": Showing Weakness on Nuclear Issues, Holding the Line on Missiles

Iran faces increasing pressure. Earlier this month, the U.S. and Iran just resumed indirect negotiations on the nuclear issue in Muscat, Oman, after months of suspension. However, while sitting at the negotiation table, the U.S. issued tough words. Trump publicly stated he is considering sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, implying readiness to use force at any time. Even more shocking, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu went to Washington in advance, clearly employing a “diplomatic coercion” tactic—pressuring Trump to adopt a hardline stance against Iran, and even demanding U.S. support for Israel’s airstrikes on Iran’s ballistic missile facilities. Watching the U.S.-Israel joint pressure, Iran finds itself in a passive situation with a knife at its throat.

U.S. and Israel Double Pressure: Iran Trapped in a “Choking” Dilemma

Under this double pressure, most countries would face a dilemma: either stand firm or fully compromise. But Iran has taken a third path. In mid-month, President Rouhani unexpectedly announced two important positions to the world: first, Iran does not seek nuclear weapons; second, Iran is willing to accept any form of international inspection and will fully open its doors to inspectors.

On the surface, Iran seems to have taken a step back on the nuclear issue, falling into a passive “choking” situation. But in reality, Iran’s leadership is playing a sophisticated diplomatic game. Iran is well aware that, despite being in a difficult position, it is not entirely passive—key is how to resolve this “choking” situation while maintaining its strategic red lines.

Showing Sincerity with Strategic Calculations: Why Iran Makes Concessions on Nuclear Issues

Iran’s concessions on the nuclear issue are a carefully crafted diplomatic performance. First, when Iran says “not seeking nuclear weapons,” it does not mean abandoning its right to peaceful nuclear energy but is a precise political declaration. Second, proactively opening the doors for inspections directly occupies the moral high ground.

The international consensus has long been to prevent nuclear proliferation. Iran’s actions declare openly that it has nothing to hide. In contrast, the U.S. has long used the nuclear issue as an excuse to pressure and sanction Iran. Now that Iran has opened its doors and invited verification, if the U.S. continues sanctions and pressure, it will be in the wrong. This reversal is key to Iran escaping the “choking” trap—by proactively increasing transparency and regaining the narrative.

However, Iran’s true strategic intent is deeper than the surface. In fact, U.S. concerns over Iran’s nuclear weapons are just a superficial pretext. The real goal of the U.S. is to remove Iran’s last lifeline—ballistic missiles. This is the real reason Iran is being “choked.”

Ballistic Missiles: Iran’s Uncrossable Red Line

To understand why Iran is so resolute on missile issues, one must consider Iran’s strategic situation. Iran has long been encircled by the U.S. and Israel. Its conventional military power lags far behind the U.S., and its economy has been under long-term sanctions, forcing it to struggle. In this environment, ballistic missiles have become Iran’s most cost-effective deterrent and the last pillar of its national defense.

According to Western intelligence assessments, Iran currently possesses over 4,000 various missiles, with more than 70% being ballistic missiles. The most advanced “Khoramshahr-4” missile has a range of 2,000 km, meaning all key U.S. bases in the Middle East and the entire territory of Israel are within its strike range. Even more impressive, Iran can produce about 300 ballistic missiles per month, with its stockpile continuously growing. This sustained production alone constitutes a formidable strategic deterrent.

Because missiles are so critical, Iran will not yield even half a step on this issue. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei’s political advisor Shamkhani has publicly emphasized that missile issues are outside the scope of nuclear negotiations, and negotiators have no qualification to discuss them. Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif has repeatedly stated that Iran will not negotiate its missile program. In Iran’s strategic logic, missiles have saved Iran from the threat of U.S.-Israeli joint pressure. Giving up missiles now would be equivalent to disarmament. Losing this defense line and missile deterrence would make the consequences of U.S. and Israeli actions unthinkable.

Thus, Iran’s strategy is clear: show sincerity and transparency on nuclear issues to gain international support; firmly defend its bottom line on missile issues, not yielding an inch. This is the key to escaping the “choking” dilemma—by selectively retreating to protect more vital interests.

Multilateral Diplomacy and Currency Swap: Iran’s Confidence in Breaking Economic Blockades

Iran’s courage to insist on missile issues stems from the fact that it is not isolated. Iran is actively promoting multilateral diplomatic cooperation, having joined mechanisms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. More importantly, Iran has signed currency swap agreements with China and Russia, gradually shifting oil trade away from dollar settlement, directly cutting off U.S. control through financial channels.

At the same time, Iran demonstrates diplomatic sincerity with strategic moves. Iran proposes to reduce uranium enrichment from 60% to 20%, but on the condition that the U.S. must fully and irreversibly lift unilateral sanctions. This move effectively “chokes” the U.S.—pushing the ball back into American hands, demanding that the U.S. first prove its sincerity. Now, it is up to the U.S. to demonstrate willingness to compromise, not Iran.

Through these actions, Iran has successfully turned the “choking” situation around, regaining the initiative in negotiations. It has shown transparency on the nuclear issue, gained international support, and maintained its missile red line. Additionally, by leveraging multilateral cooperation and financial innovation, Iran has broken through U.S. economic encirclement. This is Iran’s real diplomatic winning move—seemingly retreating, but actually winning the entire game.