Who will dominate the next trillion-dollar track "Humanoid Robots"? Hyundai Motor challenges Tesla's "Optimus" with the "Atlas"

When Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Euisun Chung took the stage at the 2022 Consumer Electronics Show with the robotic dog “Spot,” an audience member asked when the company would remove the “automobile” from its name. It now seems that moment may have arrived.

According to CnTechPost, at the CES held last month in Las Vegas, Hyundai made a splash with its humanoid robot “Atlas.” During the demonstration, the robot showcased human-like agility: it could stand up on its own, walk freely on stage, and rotate its torso and head with astonishing precision, moving very naturally. The market responded enthusiastically, and Hyundai’s stock price surged 80% over the following two weeks.

As global attention focused on Elon Musk’s long-promised “Optimus” robot and the AI race between China and the U.S., Hyundai has quietly become a leader in the humanoid robot field.

For automakers like Tesla (TSLA.US) and Hyundai, humanoid robots share almost the same underlying technology as electric vehicles: both are powered by batteries, controlled by motors, and navigated using sensors and artificial intelligence. This allows them to leverage their technological expertise and manufacturing capabilities to seize opportunities in a market projected by Morgan Stanley to reach $5 trillion by 2050 (with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use worldwide).

While the current primary goal is to use humanoid robots on assembly lines to reduce labor costs, their potential markets extend into warehousing, manufacturing, and ultimately elder care and household assistance.

Hyundai, known for producing affordable, reliable, and durable cars, invested billions of dollars into Boston Dynamics after acquiring the developer of “Spot” in 2021, and actively recruits top talent from companies like Tesla and Nvidia.

Amid upheaval in the global auto industry, venturing into robotics may be Hyundai’s inevitable choice. With electric vehicle transformation facing setbacks, European and American automakers are suffering hundreds of billions in losses; meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs and the rise of Chinese manufacturers are putting pressure on Hyundai in the world’s two largest auto markets. Additionally, despite years of heavy investment, delays in launching autonomous and driverless taxi platforms have also strained the company.

From a technical perspective, “Atlas” is a marvel: it has tactile sensors, hands with proportions close to humans, and fully rotatable joints. It can carry loads of up to 50 kilograms and operate in extreme temperatures from -20°C to 40°C. Hyundai plans to deploy “Atlas” initially for high-repetition tasks like parts handling by 2028, and by 2030, to more complex assembly work.

Macquarie Securities Korea analyst James Hong believes that with a clear deployment schedule and Hyundai’s extensive manufacturing infrastructure, the company is poised to set a new standard for humanoid robot commercialization.

“They have the right elements and a management team that knows how to execute,” Hong said. “Of course, execution and speed are critical, but the reality is that most global automakers don’t even have those basic elements from the start.”

Analysts see “Atlas” as a strong challenger to Tesla’s “Optimus,” citing its superior technical specifications, including higher load capacity, readiness for mass production, and strategic partnerships with Nvidia and Google DeepMind. They believe “Atlas” will help Hyundai cut labor costs—about 10% of its revenue—by enabling 24/7 operation and improving worker safety and efficiency on production lines.

Of course, Chinese manufacturers currently dominate the humanoid robot market, according to research firm Omdia. Last year, out of approximately 13,000 humanoid robots shipped globally, Chinese companies accounted for the vast majority. Chinese humanoid robots are also cheaper than Western-made models: the latest robot from UBTECH costs only $4,900, while a simplified version from ZhiYuan Robotics sells for around $14,000.

Although Hyundai has not publicly disclosed pricing strategies, Samsung Securities analyst Esther Yim said that Boston Dynamics briefed analysts during CES that the initial price of the robot could be between $130,000 and $140,000—enough to recoup investment within two years. Yim added that once production exceeds 10,000 units, prices could drop by up to 50%.

Macquarie Securities’ Hong pointed out that if the price drops to $100,000, the operating cost of “Atlas” would be about $5.10 per hour. This is below the U.S. federal minimum wage of $7.25 and far lower than the typical $20–$38 per hour paid in automotive factories. He estimates that by early 2028, humanoid robots could replace 3 to 4 million assembly workers worldwide.

These figures have excited investors. Within two weeks of “Atlas”’s debut, Hyundai’s stock hit a record high—surpassing General Motors at one point to become the fourth-largest automaker by market value globally.

Although the stock later retreated from its peak, earlier this month, the company released a video showing “Atlas” performing side flips and backflips, highlighting its agility and lifelike movements, which further boosted the stock.

DAOL Investment Securities analyst Yoo Jiwoong noted that “Atlas”’s 50 kg load capacity sets it apart, especially compared to Tesla’s “Optimus” and Figure AI’s robots, which have a 20 kg capacity. This makes it the only humanoid robot capable of deployment in all manufacturing environments, including heavy-duty auto plants.

However, Tesla’s end-to-end platform offers cost advantages without external help, while Hyundai relies on Nvidia chips and third-party AI developers. DS Investment Securities analyst Choi TaeYong and others believe that the so-called “Nvidia tax” and costs paid to other suppliers will erode Hyundai’s profit margins.

“Even if Tesla can produce 1 million humanoid robots annually by 2030, it won’t meet global demand,” Choi said. “The market needs a large ‘second place’ company to fill the gap and benefit from technological spillovers, and Hyundai is at the forefront of this competition.”

KB Securities analyst Kang Seongjin and others noted that the latest “Atlas” video shows it can quickly recover from failed jumps or imperfect landings, indicating it has reached a level where no on-site training is needed for deployment and can respond independently to unexpected situations in real environments.

“Hyundai is the most prominent alternative, capable of sharing the long-term value of autonomous driving and robotics that Tesla has monopolized,” Kang said. “It has a clear vision for robotics, but with a market cap only one-fifth of Tesla’s, it’s a very attractive choice for investing in ‘physical AI’.”