Seeing the right probability is the survival rule for retail investors

A structured trading system has revealed the true nature of the stock market: there are no gods here, only probabilities; no saviors, only a contest of human nature.~~

Whenever I hear someone promote “buy-in guarantees 100% profit,” I politely walk away. Institutions can control the market temporarily, but they cannot control sudden policy changes or influence global capital flows. Even giants can turn over, let alone retail investors. Therefore, respecting probabilities is, in my personal opinion, the first rule for survival in the stock market.~~

Yesterday’s personal trades are a microcosm of applying probability in practice:

1. Buying on the limit-down for Banna Film : After continuous declines, the rebound probability is high. I don’t go all-in but build a core position, using small positions to seize big opportunities. This is discipline locking in risk.~~
2. Selling on the limit-up for Fale : After consecutive limit-ups, the risk of profit-taking exiting is greater than the chance of continued limit-up. I chose to exit decisively, refusing to chase further. This is the mindset of taking profits when the time is right.~~
3. Today, I bought back Fale after yesterday’s limit-up, which is also a matter of probability. There’s a main force unloading, so I believe even if it peaks, there will be fluctuations. The probability of this is high, so I decided to buy back.~~

All trades are based on probability calculations. In the relative theory of opportunity and risk, I seek the optimal approach—avoiding gambling on certainty, only solving probability problems.~~

Establishing a trading framework allows me to see clearly that the stock market is not only a game of probabilities but also a battlefield of human nature.~~

Human weaknesses often expose themselves in the pursuit of extreme trends. How many people dream of buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest? Even major institutions holding large funds, can they do it? The answer is no. Even the main players are repeatedly slapped in the face by chasing highs and selling lows. How can retail investors expect such perfect, god-like operations?~~

Therefore, I set a strict rule for myself: only eat the fish body, avoid the head and tail. The head and tail are full of bones and hard to chew. Giving up on unnecessary head and tail parts is the best strategy for survival and profit.~~

Looking back at Fale yesterday, I refused to broaden my perspective. Since the risk of taking over at high levels after consecutive limit-ups exceeds the probability of continued streaks, I chose to lock in profits decisively. Let the later volatile and risky “tail” market be left to those greedy warriors to gamble. I only earn within my understanding, and that’s enough.~~

From today’s early trading of Fale and Banna Film , the actual movements again confirm the effectiveness of this probability system. Yesterday’s layout on Banna Film after the limit-down, and this morning’s re-entry after the limit-down and profit-taking on Fale , the correct probability is continuously increasing.~~

Summary:

• Don’t chase highs, don’t bottom-fish, only buy gradually on dips.
• Don’t chase tops, don’t fight the trend, stick to segmented profit-taking.
• Strict discipline, unity of knowledge and action.
• Not seeking perfection, only steady growth.
• Keep a calm mindset, maintain rhythm.
• Enter calmly, exit with dignity.~~

Original ideas are hard to come by. If you agree, please like, interact, and encourage. Your support is my motivation to keep sharing. Thanks also to those who tip me—your recognition of my effort and value. Thank you.~~

Wishing everyone successful investments and long-term profits.