The #BTC market is entering a zone of structural pressure where on-chain and institutional signals converge.

📉1️⃣ Major players increase inflow to exchanges According to #CryptoQuant : The exchange ratio of major players reached 0.64 — the highest since 2015. This means that the top 10 wallets account for 64% of BTC inflow to exchanges. Historically, this indicator signals potential supply pressure. 🏦 2️⃣ Hedge funds reduce BTC-ETF positions According to MacroMicro ( citing CF Benchmarks ): In Q4 2025, hedge funds reduced their BTC-ETF positions by 28% quarter-over-quarter. Reasons include: — Peak above $126 000 — Systematic risk reduction — Decline in yield of underlying trades from double digits to ~4% Carry trade weakens → mechanical closing of positions → market pressure. Today, BTC is around $66 000 — nearly -50% from the maximum.
📊 3️⃣ Futures positioning — Commercial participants (hedgers) — extremely short — Large speculators — extremely long Historically, such imbalances often coincided with the final stages of decline.
📚 4️⃣ Historical principle A century of market data reveals a simple pattern: The best entry points are formed during periods of panic, not euphoria. The overall picture 🔴 Whales are active on exchanges 🔴 Institutions have reduced risk 🟡 Speculators are overloaded with longs 🟢 Price is already -50% from the peak. Conclusion Structurally, the market is clearing excess leverage and arbitrage strategies. In the short term, pressure from large wallets persists. In the medium term, extreme positioning may create conditions for a reversal phase. The key question now is whether the inflow of whales will turn into real sales or if this is a preparation for a new accumulation cycle. #bitcoin $BTC