BOUNCE OR WATCH HISTORY REPEAT 🟥

We are seeing the same slip again.
> It didn't happen from 2016 to 2022
> It happened in 2022
Now we are in the same zone.
Another big red candle as $40k is the next target !
Bulls need to hold above $56k
Why this matters? 👇
Bitcoin is sitting at a level that has quietly decided entire cycles before.
On the monthly chart, the 50 SMA has acted like a structural backbone for years. In the 2016–2020 expansion, price consistently respected it.
Dips into that average were opportunities, not threats. That’s where strong hands stepped in and the broader uptrend stayed intact.
Then 2022 happened.
Price lost the 50 SMA around the $20k region. It didn’t collapse overnight, but the tone changed.
Within months, Bitcoin was printing $16k. The break wasn’t dramatic in the moment but it was also a bottom for the price.
Right now, Bitcoin is still above that same 50 SMA. That’s the key detail.
We’re not in breakdown territory yet. But we’re close enough that this level matters.
If bulls defend it and we see a clean monthly bounce, the larger uptrend narrative stays alive. It reinforces the idea that this is consolidation within a cycle, not the start of another prolonged unwind.
If it slips decisively below, the conversation changes.
Long-term trends don’t die loudly. They weaken, then roll over and that is why we are sitting at a crucial level.
This is one of those moments where the market chooses which direction are we going next.
Recovery or 5 more months of a bear market.