Trump's tariff policy caused $465 million to evaporate instantly

A harsh reality: this round of the market has already ended.

One word from Trump, how many people's wealth dreams have been destroyed?

In the early hours of the 23rd, Trump announced a 15% tariff on all imported goods. Once the news broke, global financial markets instantly turned blood-red.

Bitcoin dropped directly from the support level of $67,600, with $465 million liquidated within 4 hours, of which $434 million were long positions. What does this mean? It means the vast majority of people were betting on the rise, only to be wiped out in one go.

Even more frightening is that this time it's not a technical correction but a systemic macro risk.

I saw a guy in the trading group say: "I went all-in with 1 million, now I only have 400,000 left, and my wife wants to divorce me."

Another replied: "Bro, at least you still have your wife. I’ve lost my wife and my money."

This is the reality. When the tide goes out, you see who’s been swimming naked.

Predicting the market's brutal data

The data on Polymarket is even more shocking: 72% believe Bitcoin will fall below $55,000 by 2026, and 61% think it will drop below $50,000.

Keep in mind, participants in prediction markets are betting real money, not just talk. They vote with their cash, and their predictions are more convincing than any analyst’s forecast.

From $126,000 to the current $65,000, Bitcoin has already fallen 48%. If it really drops to $50,000, that’s a 60% decline. Is this still a bull market?

This is a bear market, and a brutal one at that.

Why is this time different?

Many still view this decline with old thinking: "Bitcoin always rebounds, it will this time too."

Wrong, completely wrong.

The background this time is entirely different:

1. Deteriorating macro environment: Trump’s tariff policy is no joke; it will directly impact global economic growth. When the economy is bad, who has the energy to speculate on crypto?

2. Strengthening dollar: Tariff policies will push the dollar higher, and a strong dollar is a nightmare for Bitcoin. Historical data shows that when the dollar rises, Bitcoin falls.

3. Geopolitical risks: Market rumors suggest Trump might take action against Iran. During wartime, funds flow into gold and US bonds, not Bitcoin.

4. Technical breakdown: The key support level of $65,000 is already precarious. Once broken, the abyss awaits below.

What’s the most heartbreaking?

The most heartbreaking thing is that we have a "president who supports cryptocurrencies," yet Bitcoin has plummeted 48% during his term.

It’s like hiring a bodyguard with your money, only to get beaten up by him.

Markets don’t change their rules because politicians make statements; they only fluctuate based on actual policies. Trump may say he supports Bitcoin, but his economic policies are poison for it.

What will happen next?

My simple judgment: BTC will continue to fall, targeting $48,000–$50,000.

Why so certain?
Because both technical and fundamental analyses point in the same direction:
Technical: $60,000–$62,000 is a major cost zone for many investors. Once broken, panic selling will accelerate the downward trend.

Fundamental: The impact of tariff policies has just begun, and more negative news will follow.

Sentiment: Retail investor sentiment has turned extremely pessimistic, and this emotion will reinforce itself.

Of course, there might be a rebound, but that’s just a technical bounce within a bear market, not changing the overall trend.

Advice for those still holding on

If you still have positions, my advice is:
1. Cut losses decisively. Don’t believe in "diamond hands"; if you need to sell, sell. Surviving is more important than anything.

2. Don’t try to bottom fish. It looks cheap now, but it might get even cheaper. Wait for a confirmed bottom before entering.

3. Control your position size. If you must participate, use money you can afford to lose, and don’t affect your normal life.

4. Watch macro trends. This decline is driven by macro factors; technical analysis is of limited use.

Final words

I know many people are reluctant to accept this reality, after all, everyone hopes their investments will make money.

But the market won’t change because of your wishes. Admitting mistakes and adjusting in time is what mature investors do.

Bitcoin rose from $3 to $126,000, creating countless wealth myths. But myths are myths; the reality is most people will lose money in this game.
Don’t be the last one holding the bag.

Remember: in speculative markets, just surviving is already winning most of the battle.