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Is there still a second half to the bull market in gold and silver?

This weekend, driven by the renewed tension in the US-Iran situation, gold and silver prices surged again, with silver soaring by 8% in a single day. This naturally brings back that lingering question in everyone's mind—does the gold and silver bull market still have a second half?

📈 Let's first look at the market and technical indicators:

Since peaking and then sharply declining on January 29, gold prices are currently in a rebound and consolidation phase. The chart shows a flag pattern, oscillating between 4700 and 5100; RSI remains in a bottoming consolidation with a trend of breaking out of the oversold zone; KDJ has formed a golden cross; MACD, after sufficient adjustment, shows decreasing green bars and the possibility of a new golden cross. Overall, these signals suggest that the consolidation phase may be nearing a trend reversal.

🔨 Now, let's examine whether the main factors driving this round of gold and silver bull market have changed:

There are three main reasons for this bull market: frequent international geopolitical conflicts; continuous gold purchases by central banks; and weakening US dollar credit. Currently, the first two factors remain unchanged:

1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no signs of resolution, and although the US-Iran nuclear talks have made some progress in the second round, they are still far from reaching a consensus. Both sides are preparing for action, and over the weekend, reports emerged that the US military might carry out preliminary strikes on Iran.

2. Aside from a few countries like Singapore, Russia, and Germany reducing their holdings, most central banks worldwide, led by China, continue to buy gold. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, reaching the highest level since 2019. Global central bank gold purchases are expected to be between 700 and 800 tons in 2026, slightly below the approximately 850 tons in 2025 but still well above pre-pandemic levels.

3. Another factor fueling this round of gold and silver bull market is the weakening US dollar and declining interest rates, which reduce the appeal of traditional assets. Gold, as a non-sovereign asset, benefits from liquidity advantages during market stress, even outperforming long-term US Treasuries. However, recent US employment data remains strong, indicating the US economy is still robust, and market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will slow down rate cuts until after June. In the short term, the dollar remains relatively strong, but weak Q4 GDP growth and other uncertainties make its future trajectory unpredictable.

💡 In summary: Based on the above analysis, the gold and silver bull market likely still has a second half. Investors should closely watch when the current flag pattern consolidation breaks, as the market is increasingly likely to choose a direction as it approaches the end of this pattern. During the consolidation, it’s advisable to buy on dips near the lower boundary of the range and avoid shorting at the top. Are you all trading gold and silver in traditional finance? What are your views on the future of gold and silver? Feel free to leave comments and interact. Wishing everyone a prosperous Year of the Horse—may you get rich every day!