Interesting Opportunities: AGQ Put and Call Options Strategies for March 13th Expiration

Traders monitoring ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) recently discovered interesting contract opportunities for the March 13th expiration cycle. Through systematic analysis of the options chain, two compelling strategies emerged that deserve closer examination. These positions offer distinct risk-reward profiles for different investor objectives.

The Put Option Play: Discounted Entry Point with Strong Probability

One interesting approach involves the put contract at the $362.50 strike. Currently quoted at $77.80, this position appeals to traders interested in acquiring AGQ shares at a reduced cost. By selling-to-open this put contract, traders assume the obligation to purchase shares at $362.50 while collecting the premium upfront. This mechanics effectively lowers the net entry point to $284.70 per share (before commissions)—notably below today’s trading price of $374.06.

The $362.50 strike sits approximately 3% beneath current levels, positioning it out-of-the-money. Statistical models suggest roughly 72% probability that this contract expires worthless. Should this scenario unfold, the $77.80 premium generates a 21.46% return on the cash commitment over the two-week period—translating to roughly 182.35% on an annualized basis. This yield enhancement illustrates why such strategies attract income-focused traders.

The Call Option Strategy: Enhanced Returns Through Covered Calls

On the call side, an interesting alternative emerges at the $400.00 strike, presently bid at $126.20. Traders purchasing AGQ at the current $374.06 level and simultaneously selling this call as a covered call position commit to selling shares at the $400.00 level upon assignment. Combined with the premium collected, this approach targets a total return of 40.67% should assignment occur at March 13th expiration.

The $400.00 strike trades roughly 7% above current price levels, out-of-the-money by that spread. Analytical models indicate approximately 33% odds of expiration worthless. If the contract fails to reach profitability before expiration, traders retain both their shares and the collected premium. This $126.20 premium alone supplies 33.74% additional return, or 286.66% annualized. Such numbers reveal why covered call strategies remain interesting alternatives for yield-oriented portfolios.

Volatility Metrics and Risk Assessment

The put contract displays 209% implied volatility while the call option shows 216%. These elevated levels contrast sharply with the calculated 78% actual volatility derived from trailing twelve-month price movements and today’s closing data. This gap between implied and realized volatility represents an interesting data point—premium collectors benefit when implied levels compress toward realized figures.

Weighing the Trade-offs

Each strategy addresses different objectives. The put approach suits traders seeking potential share accumulation at a discount, with high probability of cost reduction. The call strategy benefits those already holding shares or willing to purchase at current levels, prioritizing steady income over unlimited upside capture.

These interesting options contracts illustrate the complexity underlying derivatives markets. Reviewing twelve-month historical price action, understanding business fundamentals, and grasping individual Greeks remain essential before committing capital to either strategy.